This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to TB. TB have been struggling, dropping 3 of their last 3.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Christian Watson · against TB

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

42%

Intermediate

33%

Deep (20+)

24%

Left side

32%

Middle

27%

Right side

40%

How TB defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

18th

Intermediate

25th

Deep (20+)

14th

Left side

23rd

Middle

21st

Right side

13th

Yards after catch allowed

27th

Sack rate forced

23rd

The read

1. Tampa Bay rank 25th against intermediate throws, which make up 33% of Watson's targets.
2. Don't force short throws: they've been Watson's worst return (-0.27 EPA a target), and Tampa Bay are 18th there.
3. Work the middle: 27% of his targets go that way and Tampa Bay rank 21st defending throws there.
4. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 6th percentile for separation and 57th for hands, and Zyon McCollum allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
5. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Emeka Egbuka · against GB

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

43%

Intermediate

39%

Deep (20+)

18%

Left side

40%

Middle

25%

Right side

36%

How GB defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

21st

Intermediate

30th

Deep (20+)

25th

Left side

27th

Middle

19th

Right side

26th

Yards after catch allowed

5th

Sack rate forced

22nd

The read

1. Green Bay rank 30th against intermediate throws, which make up 39% of Egbuka's targets.
2. Work the left side: 40% of his targets go that way and Green Bay rank 27th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 35th percentile for separation and 28th for hands, and Keisean Nixon allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Baker Mayfield · against GB

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How GB defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

21st

Intermediate

30th

Deep (20+)

25th

Left side

27th

Middle

19th

Right side

26th

Yards after catch allowed

5th

Sack rate forced

22nd

The read

1. Green Bay rank 24th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against intermediate throws.
2. Pressure: Green Bay are 22nd at getting sacks, and Tampa Bay are 19th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Packers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

GB offence

TB defence

OverallEPA per play

26th

7th

PassingEPA per dropback

20th

12th

RushingEPA per carry

32nd

6th

Third downconversion rate

32nd

8th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

17th

21st

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Buccaneers defence has a 26-place edge.

When the Buccaneers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

TB offence

GB defence

OverallEPA per play

32nd

22nd

PassingEPA per dropback

31st

25th

RushingEPA per carry

16th

21st

Third downconversion rate

28th

29th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

32nd

13th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Packers defence has a 19-place edge.

Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Packers this season

L22-39wk 1 at MINW20-17wk 2 at NYJL14-35wk 3 vs ATL

Buccaneers this season

L27-33wk 1 at CINL19-23wk 2 vs CLEL16-23wk 3 vs MIN

Last 2 meetingsGB 1 · TB 1

34-20TB at GB
2023-12

14-12GB at TB
2022-09

Injury report

Packersmodel impact 0.0

Savion WilliamsWR	IR
Thomas YassminTE	IR
Luke MusgraveTE	PUP
Marlon JonesCB	IR
Collin OliverDE	IR
Micah ParsonsLB · Knee - ACL	PUP
Zach Bako-BeweleOL · Knee	IR
Jordon RileyDL · Achilles	PUP
Johnathan BaldwinDB · Knee	IR
Jayden ReedWR · Neck	Doubtful
Pierre StrongRB · Hamstring	Questionable
Edgerrin CooperLB · Head	Questionable

Buccaneersmodel impact 0.0

Baker MayfieldQB · Thumb	Out
Jalen McMillanWR · Knee - PCL	Out
David SillsWR	IR
Josh HayesCB · Knee	IR
Mohamed KamaraDL · Knee	IR
Josiah TrotterLB · Shoulder	Questionable
Rueben BainDL · Groin	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.