NE
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIA
NYG
HOU
SF
CAR
DEN
ARI
LA
LV
KC
SEA
PHI
DET look like the play here. GB have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DET defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Detroit rank 28th against deep balls, and 26% of Watson's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the middle: 31% of his targets go that way and Detroit rank 24th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 6th percentile for separation and 43rd for hands, and Rock Ya-Sin allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How GB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Green Bay rank 21st against short throws, which make up 66% of Brown's targets.
- Work the right side: 34% of his targets go that way and Green Bay rank 21st defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 57th percentile for separation and 36th for hands, and Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Packers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)GB offenceDET defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Packers offence has a 16-place edge.
When the Lions have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DET offenceGB defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Lions offence has a 20-place edge.
Form and history
Packers this season
22-39wk 1 at MINW
20-17wk 2 at NYJL
14-35wk 3 vs ATLW
17-14wk 4 at TBW
31-7wk 5 vs CHIW
23-13wk 6 vs DALLions this season
31-24GB at DET2025-11
13-27DET at GB2025-09
31-34GB at DET2024-12
24-14DET at GB2024-11
29-22GB at DET2023-11
Injury report
Packersmodel impact -1.2| Jayden ReedWR · Neck | IR |
| Skyy MooreWR · Ankle | IR |
| Chris BrooksRB · Ankle | IR |
| Thomas YassminTE | IR |
| Luke MusgraveTE | PUP |
| Collin OliverDE | IR |
| Micah ParsonsLB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Edgerrin CooperLB · Achilles | IR |
| Javon HargraveDT · Achilles | IR |
| Zach Bako-BeweleOL · Knee | IR |
| Jordon RileyDL · Achilles | PUP |
| Jonathan FordDL · Calf | IR |
Lionsmodel impact 0.0| Tom KennedyWR · Knee - MCL | IR |
| Kendrick LawWR · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Back | IR |
| Avonte MaddoxCB · Foot | IR |
| Payton TurnerDE · Back | IR |
| Devin WhiteLB · Forearm | IR |
| Damone ClarkLB | IR |
| Cade MaysOL · Wrist | IR |
| Ben BartchOL · Foot | IR |
| Giovanni ManuOL · Knee | PUP |
| Brian BranchDB · Achilles | PUP |
| Kerby JosephDB · Knee | PUP |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors DET (66%) by 5.9 points.