ARI
DAL
BAL
BUF
PIT
IND
JAX
LV
NYJ
MIN
TEN
CIN
LAC
LA
KC
DEN
NE
MIA
WAS
SEA
We lean toward GB in this one.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How GB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Green Bay rank 22nd against deep balls, and 17% of McMillan's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the left side: 38% of his targets go that way and Green Bay rank 25th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CAR defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Carolina rank 20th against intermediate throws, which make up 32% of Watson's targets.
- Work the right side: 38% of his targets go that way and Carolina rank 23rd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 7th percentile for separation and 64th for hands, and Michael Jackson and Will Lee both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Panthers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CAR offenceGB defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Panthers offence has a 13-place edge.
When the Packers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)GB offenceCAR defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Packers offence has a 14-place edge.
Form and history
Panthers this season
37-59wk 1 vs CHIW
34-3wk 2 at ATLL
18-21wk 3 at CLEW
32-26wk 4 vs DETW
25-14wk 6 at PHIL
13-43wk 7 vs TBPackers this season16-13CAR at GB2025-11
33-30GB at CAR2023-12
Injury report
Panthersmodel impact 0.0| Chris Brazzell IIWR · Knee | IR |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Knee | IR |
| Jonathon BrooksRB · Abdomen | IR |
| Mike JacksonCB · Groin | IR |
| Jaycee HornCB · Quadriceps | IR |
| Thomas IncoomLB · Calf | IR |
| Cam JacksonDT · Knee | IR |
| Taylor MotonT · Lower Leg | IR |
| Ikem EkwonuT · Knee | PUP |
| Brady ChristensenT · Hamstring | IR |
| Nic ScourtonDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Jaelan PhillipsLB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Packersmodel impact -0.4| Sean RhyanOL · Ankle | Out |
| Jayden ReedWR · Neck | IR |
| Skyy MooreWR · Ankle | IR |
| Chris BrooksRB · Ankle | IR |
| Thomas YassminTE | IR |
| Luke MusgraveTE | PUP |
| Collin OliverDE | IR |
| Micah ParsonsLB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Edgerrin CooperLB · Achilles | IR |
| Javon HargraveDT · Achilles | IR |
| Zach Bako-BeweleOL · Knee | IR |
| Jacob MonkOL · Quadriceps | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Passing yards | 254.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 20% | |
| Jordan LoveGBrole up | Passing yards | 256.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Bryce YoungCAR | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 40% | |
| Jordan LoveGBrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.68 | 56% | 30% | |
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Rushing yards | 10.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 70% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Rushing yards | 69.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 50% | |
| Jordan LoveGB | Rushing yards | 4.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 40% | |
| Josh JacobsGB | Rushing yards | 58.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 80% | |
| MarShawn LloydGB | Rushing yards | 18.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Christian WatsonGBrole up | Receiving yards | 70.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 20% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 20% | |
| Darren WallerCAR | Receiving yards | 19.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 90% | |
| Jalen CokerCAR | Receiving yards | 62.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| John Metchie IIICAR | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 20% | |
| Josh JacobsGB | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 50% | |
| MarShawn LloydGB | Receiving yards | 5.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 0% | |
| Matthew GoldenGB | Receiving yards | 59.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Receiving yards | 72.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 20% | |
| Tommy TrembleCARrole up | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Tucker KraftGB | Receiving yards | 43.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Christian WatsonGBrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.81 | 52% | 0% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.24 | 42% | 50% | |
| Darren WallerCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.11 | 45% | 80% | |
| Jalen CokerCARrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.68 | 56% | 10% | |
| John Metchie IIICAR | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.78 | 53% | 20% | |
| Josh JacobsGBrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.01 | 47% | 50% | |
| MarShawn LloydGB | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.45 | 38% | 0% | |
| Matthew GoldenGB | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.84 | 51% | 0% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.18 | 43% | 0% | |
| Tommy TrembleCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.20 | 43% | 40% | |
| Tucker KraftGB | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.96 | 48% | 20% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors GB (60%) by 5.7 points.