Lions at Bills: week 2 | Fourth and Data

Lions

lost by 10

Final · week 2

31–41

at Highmark Stadium · Thu 17 Sept

Bills

won by 10

How the game swung

The Bills' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Bills ahead■ Lions ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The plays that decided it

Q1 3:49 - Buffalo explosive play by J.Allen (+9% WPA) sealed it.

Q1 3:49 · Explosive play

J.Allen EPA +5.5

(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].

+9%win chance to BUF

Q3 11:40 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

J.Goff EPA +4.3

(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to BUF 22 for 18 yards (37-J.Hancock).

+3%win chance to DET

Q4 2:12 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

J.Goff EPA +2.9

(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa pushed ob at DET 44 for 20 yards (47-C.Benford).

+0%win chance to DET

Every drive

Lions drive left to right, Bills right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

TD · 10 pl · 80 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -5 yds

TD · 8 pl · 79 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 15 yds

TD · 9 pl · 50 yds

TD · 12 pl · 80 yds

TD · 4 pl · 78 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 8 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 12 yds

FG · 7 pl · 57 yds

TD · 11 pl · 74 yds

TD · 15 pl · 73 yds

TD · 11 pl · 58 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 15 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds

TD · 8 pl · 61 yds

TD · 7 pl · 68 yds

Half · 1 pl · 1 yds

DET goal2040504020BUF goal

Side by side

355

Total yards

449

+0.23

EPA per play

+0.43

48%

Success rate

58%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

4/11

Third downs

9/11

Lions leaders

PassingJ.Goff26/38 · 327 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT

RushingJ.Gibbs16 car · 52 yds

ReceivingA.St. Brown9/13 · 142 yds

Bills leaders

PassingJ.Allen20/31 · 248 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT

RushingJ.Cook21 car · 135 yds

ReceivingD.Kincaid7/8 · 95 yds

Scoring

Q1 09:13	(No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	0-6
Q1 09:09	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	0-7
Q1 03:49	(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].	0-13
Q1 03:42	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	0-14
Q2 11:52	17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	0-20
Q2 11:48	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	0-21
Q2 05:07	(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-21
Q2 05:03	39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	7-21
Q2 02:56	(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 86-D.Kincaid for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	7-27
Q2 00:01	(:01) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	10-27
Q3 09:31	(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	16-27
Q3 09:29	39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	17-27
Q3 01:13	17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	17-33
Q3 01:07	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	17-34
Q4 10:57	16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	23-34
Q4 10:53	39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	24-34
Q4 02:53	4-J.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	24-40
Q4 02:50	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	24-41
Q4 01:48	(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna].	30-41
Q4 01:42	39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	31-41

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had BUF 74%, the market BUF 68%. It finished DET 31, BUF 41.

Pick published 17 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.