DET look like a strong play here. MIN have been hot lately, winning 5 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Justin Jefferson · against DET

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

55%

Intermediate

33%

Deep (20+)

12%

Left side

38%

Middle

18%

Right side

43%

How DET defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

19th

Intermediate

15th

Deep (20+)

27th

Left side

13th

Middle

25th

Right side

26th

Yards after catch allowed

1st

Sack rate forced

10th

The read

1. Detroit rank 27th against deep balls, and 12% of Jefferson's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Work the right side: 43% of his targets go that way and Detroit rank 26th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Amon-Ra St. Brown · against MIN

No obvious soft spot

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

62%

Intermediate

32%

Deep (20+)

6%

Left side

33%

Middle

33%

Right side

34%

How MIN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

13th

Intermediate

2nd

Deep (20+)

19th

Left side

6th

Middle

17th

Right side

2nd

Yards after catch allowed

26th

Sack rate forced

1st

The read

1. Minnesota are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Brown's likeliest route is short throws (62% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
2. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Jared Goff · against MIN

A tough day in the air

Profile

How MIN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

13th

Intermediate

2nd

Deep (20+)

19th

Left side

6th

Middle

17th

Right side

2nd

Yards after catch allowed

26th

Sack rate forced

1st

The read

1. Minnesota rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (19th).
2. Pressure: Minnesota are 1st at getting sacks, and Detroit are 14th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Vikings have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

MIN offence

DET defence

OverallEPA per play

29th

31st

PassingEPA per dropback

24th

28th

RushingEPA per carry

28th

18th

Third downconversion rate

24th

29th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

30th

7th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Lions defence has a 23-place edge.

When the Lions have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

DET offence

MIN defence

OverallEPA per play

4th

1st

PassingEPA per dropback

3rd

1st

RushingEPA per carry

16th

4th

Third downconversion rate

18th

3rd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

12th

1st

Biggest gap: third down, where the Vikings defence has a 15-place edge.

Form and history

Vikings this season

W39-22wk 1 vs GBW9-3wk 2 at CHIW23-16wk 3 at TBW15-10wk 4 vs MIAW23-13wk 5 at NOW16-10wk 7 vs IND

Lions this season

W31-30wk 1 vs NOL31-41wk 2 at BUFW31-24wk 3 vs NYJL26-32wk 4 at CARW45-21wk 5 at ARIW20-17wk 7 vs GB

Last 5 meetingsMIN 2 · DET 3

10-23DET at MIN
2025-12

27-24MIN at DET
2025-11

9-31MIN at DET
2025-01

31-29DET at MIN
2024-10

20-30MIN at DET
2024-01

Injury report

Vikingsmodel impact 0.0

Josh OliverTE · Biceps	IR
Donovan JacksonOL · Knee - Meniscus	IR
Tyler BattyDL · Knee - ACL	IR
Nick SamacC · Knee	IR
Jamal AdamsSS · Knee	IR
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	Questionable

Lionsmodel impact 0.0

Tom KennedyWR · Knee - MCL	IR
Kendrick LawWR · Knee - ACL	IR
Isiah PachecoRB · Back	IR
Avonte MaddoxCB · Foot	IR
Payton TurnerDE · Back	IR
Devin WhiteLB · Forearm	IR
Damone ClarkLB	IR
Ben BartchOL · Foot	IR
Giovanni ManuOL · Knee	PUP
Kerby JosephDB · Knee	PUP
Thomas HarperDB · Ankle	IR
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Ankle	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.