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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Saints
lost by 1
Final · week 1
30–31
at Ford Field · Sun 13 Sept
Lions
won by 1

How the game swung

The Lions' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTQ1 03:41: DET score (0-6)Q1 03:39: DET score (0-7)Q3 11:18: DET score (0-13)Q3 11:14: DET score (0-14)Q3 08:59: DET score (0-20)Q3 08:54: DET score (0-21)Q3 04:32: NO score (6-21)Q3 04:27: NO score (7-21)Q3 00:34: NO score (13-21)Q3 00:28: NO score (14-21)Q4 07:45: NO score (17-21)Q4 02:35: DET score (17-24)Q4 01:13: NO score (23-24)Q4 01:07: NO score (24-24)Q5 05:07: DET score (24-30)Q5 05:04: DET score (24-31)Q5 01:38: NO score (30-31)12345DET winning ↑NO winning ↓
■ Lions ahead■ Saints ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q5 1:38 - New Orleans momentum-shifting play by T.Shough (-57% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q5 6:19 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
DET

(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams ran ob at NO 5 for 22 yards.

+35%win chance to DET
2
Q5 5:04 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
DET EPA +0.1

39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

+26%win chance to NO
3
Q5 3:13 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA +3.3

(No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to NO 47 for 20 yards (29-A.Maddox). ** Injury Update: DET-23-R.Ya-Sin has returned to the game.

+32%win chance to NO
4
Q5 1:38 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA +2.3

(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+57%win chance to DET
5
Q5 1:34 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA -0.9

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 18-B.Lance is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

+30%win chance to DET

Every drive

Saints drive left to right, Lions right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q1
Punt · 6 pl · 20 yds
Q1
TD · 13 pl · 94 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q1
Punt · 8 pl · 26 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 25 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 12 yds
Q2
Punt · 6 pl · 12 yds
Q2
Turnover · 1 pl · 4 yds
Q2
Turnover · 5 pl · 20 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q2
Punt · 9 pl · 31 yds
Q2
Half · 2 pl · 11 yds
Q3
Turnover · 1 pl · 0 yds
Q3
TD · 7 pl · 41 yds
Q3
Turnover · 3 pl · -10 yds
Q3
TD · 3 pl · 25 yds
Q3
TD · 9 pl · 79 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
TD · 7 pl · 33 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 18 yds
Q4
FG · 10 pl · 71 yds
Q4
FG · 7 pl · 40 yds
Q4
TD · 8 pl · 75 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds
Q4
Missed FG · 3 pl · 36 yds
Q5
TD · 10 pl · 70 yds
Q5
TD · 11 pl · 74 yds
NO goal2040504020DET goal

Side by side

469
Total yards
369
-0.03
EPA per play
+0.00
42%
Success rate
45%
26
First downs
25
5
Sacks taken
1
3
Turnovers
1
8/17
Third downs
5/13
Saints leaders
PassingT.Shough35/56 · 410 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
RushingT.Etienne9 car · 46 yds
ReceivingC.Olave10/13 · 182 yds
Lions leaders
PassingJ.Goff26/39 · 206 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingJ.Gibbs29 car · 156 yds
ReceivingA.St. Brown10/14 · 67 yds

Scoring

Q1 03:4179-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 03:3939-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.0-7
Q3 11:180-J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.0-13
Q3 11:1439-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.0-14
Q3 08:59(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-20
Q3 08:5439-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.0-21
Q3 04:32(Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-21
Q3 04:2710-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.7-21
Q3 00:34(:34) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.13-21
Q3 00:2810-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.14-21
Q4 07:4510-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.17-21
Q4 02:3539-J.Bates 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.17-24
Q4 01:13(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23-24
Q4 01:0710-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.24-24
Q5 05:07(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24-30
Q5 05:0439-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.24-31
Q5 01:38(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.30-31

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had DET 63%, the market DET 73%. It finished NO 30, DET 31.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.