PIT
CLE
IND
WAS
ARI
NYG
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
DEN
SF
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
MIN look like a strong play here. MIA have struggled recently, losing 3 of their last 3. MIN have been rolling at home, winning 3 of their last 3.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How MIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Minnesota rank 30th against deep balls, and 17% of Washington's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the middle: 17% of his targets go that way and Minnesota rank 26th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How MIA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Miami rank 31st against intermediate throws, which make up 30% of Jefferson's targets.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Jefferson's worst return (-0.02 EPA a target), and Miami are 7th there.
- Work the right side: 43% of his targets go that way and Miami rank 28th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How MIA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Miami rank 26th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 31st against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Miami are 20th at getting sacks, and Minnesota are 32nd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Dolphins have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)MIA offenceMIN defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Vikings defence has a 28-place edge.
When the Vikings have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)MIN offenceMIA defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Dolphins defence has a 14-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Dolphins this seasonVikings this season24-16MIN at MIA2022-10
Injury report
Dolphinsmodel impact 0.0| De'Von AchaneRB · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Cole TurnerTE | IR |
| Darrell BakerCB | PUP |
| Storm DuckCB · Knee | PUP |
| Kyle LouisLB · Knee | IR |
| Trey MooreLB · Ankle | IR |
| Kenneth GrantDL · Leg | IR |
| Rene KongaDL | IR |
| Ronnie HarrisonDB · Hamstring | IR |
| Caleb DouglasWR · Ankle | Questionable |
| Jaylen WrightRB · Foot | Questionable |
| Rob BealLB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Vikingsmodel impact 0.0| Charles DemmingsCB · Hamstring | Out |
| Jordan MasonRB · Thumb | IR |
| Josh OliverTE · Biceps | IR |
| Ben YurosekTE | IR |
| Tyreek ChappellCB | IR |
| Michael JurgensOL | IR |
| Tyler BattyDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Nick SamacC · Knee | IR |
| Jamal AdamsSS · Knee | IR |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Ankle | Questionable |
| Brett ThorsonP · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors MIN (72%) by 6.7 points.