NE
CHI
NO
CIN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CLE. CLE have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. TEN have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tennessee rank 30th against deep balls, and 6% of Fannin's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
- Work the middle: 30% of his targets go that way and Tennessee rank 31st defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CLE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cleveland are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (3rd, 6th, 5th). There's no obvious soft spot for Robinson to lean on.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How CLE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cleveland rank 2nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (6th).
- Pressure: Cleveland are 2nd at getting sacks, and Tennessee are 19th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Browns have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CLE offenceTEN defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Titans defence has a 25-place edge.
When the Titans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TEN offenceCLE defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Browns defence has a 19-place edge.
Form and history
Browns this season
10-34wk 1 at JAXW
23-19wk 2 at TBW
21-18wk 3 vs CARW
27-24wk 4 vs PITL
12-17wk 5 at NYJW
13-10wk 6 vs BALTitans this season31-29TEN at CLE2025-12
3-27TEN at CLE2023-09
Injury report
Brownsmodel impact -1.4| Bub MeansWR · Knee | Out |
| Nathaniel WatsonLB · Knee | Out |
| Dillon GabrielQB · Back | IR |
| Dylan SampsonRB · Knee | IR |
| Raheim SandersRB · Hip | IR |
| Joe RoyerTE · Personal | PUP |
| Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Neck | PUP |
| Kalia DavisDL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Alex WrightDL · Achilles | IR |
| Damarri MathisDB | IR |
| Denzel BostonWR · Foot | Questionable |
| KC Concepcion Jr.WR · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Titansmodel impact -0.5| Jaren KanakTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jaylen HarrellDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tanoh KpassagnonDE | IR |
| Dorian MausiLB | IR |
| Milo EiflerLB | IR |
| Jackson SlaterOL · Foot | IR |
| Fernando Carmona Jr.G · Ankle | IR |
| Kendell BrooksDB | IR |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Hip | Questionable |
| Donnie ErnsbergerTE | Questionable |
| Dominique HamptonCB | Questionable |
| Kevin Winston Jr.DB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CLE (53%) by 1.2 points.