NYG look like the play here. NO have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Chris Olave · against NYG

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

47%

Intermediate

28%

Deep (20+)

25%

Left side

46%

Middle

14%

Right side

41%

How NYG defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

15th

Intermediate

29th

Deep (20+)

10th

Left side

8th

Middle

25th

Right side

18th

Yards after catch allowed

14th

Sack rate forced

17th

The read

1. the Giants rank 29th against intermediate throws, which make up 28% of Olave's targets.
2. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Malik Nabers · against NO

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

53%

Intermediate

29%

Deep (20+)

19%

Left side

41%

Middle

19%

Right side

40%

How NO defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

18th

Intermediate

5th

Deep (20+)

24th

Left side

21st

Middle

21st

Right side

14th

Yards after catch allowed

11th

Sack rate forced

8th

The read

1. New Orleans rank 24th against deep balls, and 19% of Nabers's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Don't force short throws: they've been Nabers's worst return (-0.08 EPA a target), and New Orleans are 18th there.
3. Work the left side: 41% of his targets go that way and New Orleans rank 21st defending throws there.
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Saints have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NO offence

NYG defence

OverallEPA per play

23rd

22nd

PassingEPA per dropback

22nd

21st

RushingEPA per carry

17th

27th

Third downconversion rate

6th

28th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

16th

26th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Saints offence has a 22-place edge.

When the Giants have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NYG offence

NO defence

OverallEPA per play

17th

26th

PassingEPA per dropback

15th

26th

RushingEPA per carry

24th

31st

Third downconversion rate

8th

29th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

24th

18th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Giants offence has a 21-place edge.

Form and history

Saints this season

L30-31wk 1 at DETW24-17wk 2 at BALL27-35wk 3 vs LVL24-45wk 4 vs ATLL13-23wk 5 vs MIN

Giants this season

W28-20wk 1 vs DALL6-28wk 2 at LAW12-7wk 3 vs TENW36-24wk 4 vs ARIT27-27wk 5 at WAS

Last 4 meetingsNO 3 · NYG 1

14-26NYG at NO
2025-10

14-11NO at NYG
2024-12

6-24NYG at NO
2023-12

27-21NYG at NO
2021-10

Injury report

Saintsmodel impact 0.0

Mason TiptonWR · Groin	PUP
Jordyn TysonWR · Hamstring	IR
Travis EtienneRB · Hamstring	IR
Ty ChandlerRB · Knee	IR
Moliki MatavaoTE · Knee	IR
Rejzohn WrightCB · Hip	IR
David LongCB	IR
Bryan BreseeDT · Knee - ACL	IR
Kelvin BanksOL · Ankle	IR
Dillon RadunzOL · Knee - ACL	IR
Nick SaldiveriOL · Knee	PUP
Zach WoodLS · Calf	IR

Giantsmodel impact 0.0

Jaxson DartQB · Knee - Meniscus	IR
Braxton BerriosWR · Foot	IR
Calvin AustinWR · Knee	IR
Gunner OlszewskiWR · Achilles	IR
Thaddeus DixonCB · Achilles	IR
Jarrick Bernard-ConverseCB · Knee	IR
Korie BlackCB	IR
Paulson AdeboCB · Knee	IR
Roy Robertson-HarrisDE · Achilles	IR
Chauncey GolstonDE · Neck	IR
Brian BurnsDE · Knee - ACL	IR
Darnell MooneyWR · Neck	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.