NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to DEN. DEN have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. ARI have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How ARI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Arizona rank 31st against deep balls, and 18% of Waddle's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the right side: 42% of his targets go that way and Arizona rank 31st defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Denver are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. McBride's likeliest route is short throws (76% of his targets), where they rank 12th.
- Work the right side: 46% of his targets go that way and Denver rank 20th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 12th percentile for separation and 78th for hands, and Riley Moss, Ja'Quan McMillian, Patrick Surtain II and Kris Abrams-Draine all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How ARI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Arizona rank 31st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 31st against short throws.
- Pressure: Arizona are 18th at getting sacks, and Denver are 3rd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Broncos have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DEN offenceARI defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Cardinals defence has a 11-place edge.
When the Cardinals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)ARI offenceDEN defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Broncos defence has a 15-place edge.
Form and history
Broncos this season
Cardinals this season15-24ARI at DEN2022-12
Injury report
Broncosmodel impact -0.7| Pat BryantWR · Ankle | IR |
| Jonah ColemanRB · Ankle | IR |
| Caleb LohnerTE · Lower Body | IR |
| Matt HenningsenDE · Achilles | IR |
| Levelle BaileyLB · Leg | IR |
| Nick GargiuloOL · Knee | PUP |
| Michael DeiterOL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Frank CrumOT | IR |
| Jonah EllissDE · Lower Leg | Doubtful |
| Talanoa HufangaDB · Ankle | Doubtful |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Chest | Questionable |
| Tyler BadieRB · Thumb | Questionable |
Cardinalsmodel impact -1.4| Trey BensonRB · Knee | IR |
| James ConnerRB · Foot | IR |
| Hunter LongTE · Knee | IR |
| Tip ReimanTE · Ankle | PUP |
| Jameson GeersTE | IR |
| Kaleb ProctorDT · Knee - Meniscus | IR |
| Paris Johnson Jr.OL · Biceps | IR |
| Isaiah AdamsOL · Ankle | IR |
| Will JohnsonDB · Neck | IR |
| Chase BisontisG · Knee - MCL | IR |
| Zach CarterDL · Knee | IR |
| Joey BlountDB | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors DEN (64%) by 3.0 points.