HOU look like a strong play here.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Malik Nabers · against HOU

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

53%

Intermediate

28%

Deep (20+)

19%

Left side

40%

Middle

21%

Right side

40%

How HOU defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

9th

Intermediate

10th

Deep (20+)

23rd

Left side

21st

Middle

6th

Right side

11th

Yards after catch allowed

8th

Sack rate forced

7th

The read

1. Houston rank 23rd against deep balls, and 19% of Nabers's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Don't force short throws: they've been Nabers's worst return (-0.04 EPA a target), and Houston are 9th there.
3. Work the left side: 40% of his targets go that way and Houston rank 21st defending throws there.
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Nico Collins · against NYG

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

41%

Intermediate

39%

Deep (20+)

20%

Left side

35%

Middle

28%

Right side

38%

How NYG defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

17th

Intermediate

28th

Deep (20+)

9th

Left side

6th

Middle

25th

Right side

17th

Yards after catch allowed

14th

Sack rate forced

19th

The read

1. the Giants rank 28th against intermediate throws, which make up 39% of Collins's targets.
2. Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and the Giants rank 25th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 7th percentile for separation and 94th for hands, and Andru Phillips, Deonte Banks and Cordale Flott all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Giants have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NYG offence

HOU defence

OverallEPA per play

18th

20th

PassingEPA per dropback

16th

20th

RushingEPA per carry

24th

11th

Third downconversion rate

9th

18th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

25th

10th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Texans defence has a 15-place edge.

When the Texans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

HOU offence

NYG defence

OverallEPA per play

12th

21st

PassingEPA per dropback

10th

21st

RushingEPA per carry

23rd

21st

Third downconversion rate

15th

21st

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

17th

30th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Texans offence has a 13-place edge.

Form and history

Giants this season

W28-20wk 1 vs DALL6-28wk 2 at LAW12-7wk 3 vs TENW36-24wk 4 vs ARIT27-27wk 5 at WASL27-34wk 6 vs NO

Texans this season

L31-36wk 1 vs BUFL6-20wk 2 vs CINL17-19wk 3 at INDL30-34wk 4 vs DALW26-3wk 5 at TENW34-31wk 6 at JAX

Last 1 meetingsNYG 1 · HOU 0

16-24HOU at NYG
2022-11

Injury report

Giantsmodel impact -1.4

Jaxson DartQB · Knee - Meniscus	IR
Braxton BerriosWR · Foot	IR
Calvin Austin IIIWR · Knee	IR
Gunner OlszewskiWR · Achilles	IR
Thaddeus DixonCB · Achilles	IR
Jarrick Bernard-ConverseCB · Knee	IR
Korie BlackCB	IR
Paulson AdeboCB · Knee	IR
Roy Robertson-HarrisDE · Achilles	IR
Chauncey GolstonDE · Neck	IR
Brian BurnsDE · Knee - ACL	IR
Charlie JonesWR · Achilles	Questionable

Texansmodel impact -2.0

Jawhar JordanRB	Out
Noah WhittingtonRB · Quadriceps	Out
Graham MertzQB · Knee - ACL	IR
Jayden HigginsWR · Knee - ACL	IR
Tank DellWR · Knee - ACL + MCL	IR
British BrooksRB · Hamstring	IR
Jaylin SmithCB · Hamstring	IR
Mario Edwards Jr.DE · Knee - ACL	IR
Solomon ByrdDE · Ankle	IR
Ali GayeDE · Knee	IR
Jake HummelLB · Groin	IR
E.J. SpeedLB · Quadriceps	PUP

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.