This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to LA.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Puka Nacua · against LV

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

62%

Intermediate

22%

Deep (20+)

15%

Left side

32%

Middle

22%

Right side

45%

How LV defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

28th

Intermediate

27th

Deep (20+)

8th

Left side

20th

Middle

26th

Right side

27th

Yards after catch allowed

21st

Sack rate forced

14th

The read

1. Las Vegas rank 28th against short throws, which make up 62% of Nacua's targets.
2. Work the right side: 45% of his targets go that way and Las Vegas rank 27th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Brock Bowers · against LA

No obvious soft spot

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

64%

Intermediate

26%

Deep (20+)

10%

Left side

35%

Middle

31%

Right side

34%

How LA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

7th

Intermediate

15th

Deep (20+)

4th

Left side

5th

Middle

11th

Right side

4th

Yards after catch allowed

16th

Sack rate forced

21st

The read

1. the Rams are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Bowers's likeliest route is intermediate throws (26% of his targets), where they rank 15th.
2. Don't force deep balls: they've been Bowers's worst return (-0.20 EPA a target), and the Rams are 4th there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 8th percentile for separation and 44th for hands, and Emmanuel Forbes, Cobie Durant, Josh Wallace and Jaylen Watson all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Matthew Stafford · against LV

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How LV defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

28th

Intermediate

27th

Deep (20+)

8th

Left side

20th

Middle

26th

Right side

27th

Yards after catch allowed

21st

Sack rate forced

14th

The read

1. Las Vegas rank 25th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 28th against short throws.
2. Pressure: Las Vegas are 14th at getting sacks, and the Rams are 1st at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Rams have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LA offence

LV defence

OverallEPA per play

10th

22nd

PassingEPA per dropback

15th

25th

RushingEPA per carry

12th

12th

Third downconversion rate

7th

22nd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

5th

13th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Rams offence has a 15-place edge.

When the Raiders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LV offence

LA defence

OverallEPA per play

14th

10th

PassingEPA per dropback

9th

16th

RushingEPA per carry

29th

13th

Third downconversion rate

8th

7th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

4th

28th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Raiders offence has a 24-place edge.

Form and history

Rams this season

L7-27wk 1 vs SFW28-6wk 2 vs NYGL26-30wk 3 at DENW24-20wk 4 at PHIL34-37wk 5 vs BUFL16-18wk 6 vs ARI

Raiders this season

W27-13wk 1 vs MIAW26-14wk 2 at LACW35-27wk 3 at NOL27-30wk 4 vs KCL17-45wk 5 at NEL30-33wk 6 vs BUF

Last 2 meetingsLA 2 · LV 0

15-20LV at LA
2024-10

16-17LV at LA
2022-12

Injury report

Ramsmodel impact 0.0

No players on the injury report.

Raidersmodel impact -1.4

Jack BechWR · Forearm	IR
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR	IR
Chris CollierRB	IR
Carter RunyonTE	IR
Chigozie AnusiemCB · Knee	IR
Keyron CrawfordDE · Ankle	IR
Brennan JacksonDE	IR
Justin PickettG	IR
Tyler ScottWR	Questionable
Mike Washington Jr.RB · Foot	Questionable
Brock BowersTE · Hamstring	Questionable
Quay WalkerLB · Chest	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.