NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
SF
ATL
CAR
DEN
ARI
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to PHI. PHI have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How PHI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Philadelphia rank 19th against intermediate throws, which make up 31% of Lamb's targets.
- Work the left side: 40% of his targets go that way and Philadelphia rank 25th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Dallas rank 30th against intermediate throws, which make up 29% of Smith's targets.
- Work the left side: 41% of his targets go that way and Dallas rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Cowboys have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DAL offencePHI defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Cowboys offence has a 30-place edge.
When the Eagles have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)PHI offenceDAL defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Eagles offence has a 11-place edge.
Form and history
Cowboys this season
20-28wk 1 at NYGW
37-20wk 2 vs WASL
31-34wk 3 vs BALW
34-30wk 4 at HOUL
16-24wk 5 vs TBL
13-23wk 6 at GBEagles this season
21-24PHI at DAL2025-11
20-24DAL at PHI2025-09
7-41DAL at PHI2024-12
34-6PHI at DAL2024-11
13-33PHI at DAL2023-12
Injury report
Cowboysmodel impact -0.5| Malik DavisRB · Hip | IR |
| DJ RogersTE · Knee | IR |
| Princeton FantTE · Knee - ACL + MCL | IR |
| Devin MooreCB | IR |
| Jonathan BullardDE · Calf | IR |
| Marist LiufauLB · Forearm | IR |
| Kelvin GilliamDT · Triceps | IR |
| Matt HennessyOL · Neck | IR |
| P.J. LockeDB · Foot | IR |
| Jalen ThompsonDB · Hamstring | IR |
| Dee WintersLB · Achilles | Doubtful |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Ribs | Questionable |
Eaglesmodel impact 0.0| Uar BernardDT | Out |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Calf | IR |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Knee | IR |
| Will ShipleyRB · Foot | IR |
| Tank BigsbyRB · Abdomen | IR |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Back | IR |
| Eli StowersTE · Hamstring | IR |
| Landon DickersonOL · Knee | IR |
| Jakorian BennettDB · Knee | IR |
| Andre' SamDB · Foot | IR |
| Tucker LargeDB | PUP |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Split signal: win probability leans DAL (58%) while the points model has PHI by 0.4 — low agreement, treat as a coin flip.