We lean toward NO in this one. LV have been the more consistent team recently, while NO have struggled to find their form.

Key matchups

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Raiders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LV offence

NO defence

OverallEPA per play

22nd

19th

PassingEPA per dropback

15th

16th

RushingEPA per carry

29th

27th

Third downconversion rate

21st

20th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

6th

22nd

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Raiders offence has a 16-place edge.

When the Saints have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NO offence

LV defence

OverallEPA per play

13th

1st

PassingEPA per dropback

16th

6th

RushingEPA per carry

10th

1st

Third downconversion rate

6th

6th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

21st

2nd

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Raiders defence has a 19-place edge.

Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Raiders this season

W27-13wk 1 vs MIAW26-14wk 2 at LAC

Saints this season

L30-31wk 1 at DETW24-17wk 2 at BAL

Last 2 meetingsLV 1 · NO 1

25-10LV at NO
2024-12

0-24LV at NO
2022-10

Injury report

Raidersmodel impact 0.0

Corey RuckerWR	IR
Dont'e ThorntonWR	IR
Justin ShorterWR	IR
Chris CollierRB	IR
Carter RunyonTE	IR
Chigozie AnusiemCB · Knee	IR
Keyron CrawfordDE · Ankle	IR
Brennan JacksonDE	IR
Justin PickettG	IR
Aidan O'ConnellQB · Personal	Questionable
Dareke YoungWR · Hamstring	Questionable
Brock BowersTE · Knee - Meniscus	Questionable

Saintsmodel impact 0.0

Kelvin BanksOL · Ankle	Out
Mason TiptonWR · Groin	PUP
Jordyn TysonWR · Hamstring	IR
Ty ChandlerRB · Knee	IR
Moliki MatavaoTE · Knee	IR
Rejzohn WrightCB · Hip	IR
David LongCB	IR
Jaylan FordLB	IR
Bryan BreseeDT · Knee - ACL	IR
Dillon RadunzOL · Knee - ACL	IR
Nick SaldiveriOL · Knee	PUP
Lorenzo StylesDB · Calf	IR

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.