TB
DAL
PHI
JAX
CHI
GB
CIN
MIA
CLE
NYJ
HOU
TEN
IND
PIT
LV
NE
NYG
WAS
DEN
LAC
DET
ARI
SF
SEA
BAL
ATL
BUF
LA
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to MIN. MIN have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 4.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NO defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New Orleans rank 18th against deep balls, which make up 26% of Addison's targets.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Addison's worst return (-0.05 EPA a target), and New Orleans are 19th there.
- Work the left side: 45% of his targets go that way and New Orleans rank 20th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 61st percentile for separation and 28th for hands, and Alontae Taylor allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How MIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Minnesota rank 28th against deep balls, and 24% of Olave's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the middle: 13% of his targets go that way and Minnesota rank 21st defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How MIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Minnesota rank 4th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (28th).
- Pressure: Minnesota are 1st at getting sacks, and New Orleans are 23rd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Vikings have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)MIN offenceNO defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Saints defence has a 13-place edge.
When the Saints have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NO offenceMIN defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Vikings defence has a 19-place edge.
Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Vikings this seasonSaints this season19-27NO at MIN2023-11
28-25MIN at NO2022-10
Injury report
Vikingsmodel impact 0.0| Jordan MasonRB · Thumb | IR |
| Josh OliverTE · Biceps | IR |
| Ben YurosekTE | IR |
| Donovan JacksonOL · Knee - Meniscus | IR |
| Michael JurgensOL | IR |
| Tyler BattyDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Nick SamacC · Knee | IR |
| Jamal AdamsSS · Knee | IR |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Ankle | Questionable |
| Charles DemmingsCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Tyreek ChappellCB | Questionable |
| Christian DarrisawT · Neck | Questionable |
Saintsmodel impact 0.0| Mason TiptonWR · Groin | PUP |
| Jordyn TysonWR · Hamstring | IR |
| Travis EtienneRB · Hamstring | IR |
| Ty ChandlerRB · Knee | IR |
| Moliki MatavaoTE · Knee | IR |
| Rejzohn WrightCB · Hip | IR |
| David LongCB | IR |
| Jaylan FordLB | IR |
| Bryan BreseeDT · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Kelvin BanksOL · Ankle | IR |
| Dillon RadunzOL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Nick SaldiveriOL · Knee | PUP |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors MIN (61%) by 5.4 points.