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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Ravens
won by 3
Final · week 3
34–31
at Maracana Stadium · Sun 27 Sept
Cowboys
lost by 3

How the game swung

The Cowboys' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 08:13: DAL score (0-3)Q1 04:35: DAL score (0-9)Q1 04:32: DAL score (0-10)Q1 01:22: BAL score (6-10)Q1 01:18: BAL score (7-10)Q2 11:29: BAL score (13-10)Q2 11:23: BAL score (14-10)Q2 04:48: BAL score (17-10)Q2 00:23: DAL score (17-13)Q3 03:50: BAL score (23-13)Q3 03:44: BAL score (24-13)Q3 01:53: DAL score (24-19)Q3 01:48: DAL score (24-21)Q4 09:46: DAL score (24-27)Q4 09:42: DAL score (24-28)Q4 01:34: BAL score (30-28)Q4 01:30: BAL score (31-28)Q4 00:10: DAL score (31-31)Q4 00:01: BAL score (34-31)12345DAL winning ↑BAL winning ↓
■ Cowboys ahead■ Ravens ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 0:01 - Baltimore momentum-shifting play by T.Loop (+27% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q3 10:40 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
D.Prescott EPA -5.6

(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to BAL 24 for -1 yards (98-T.Jones). FUMBLES (98-T.Jones), RECOVERED by BAL-32-T.Simpson at BAL 25. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

+19%win chance to BAL
2
Q4 13:07 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
D.Henry EPA -4.5

22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 4 for -3 yards (55-J.Barham).

+16%win chance to DAL
3
Q4 1:34 · Other · nobody saw this coming
L.Jackson EPA +2.0

8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 88-M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+14%win chance to BAL
4
Q4 0:07 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
L.Jackson EPA +1.7

(:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 38 for 27 yards (27-R.Steward).

+19%win chance to BAL
5
Q4 0:01 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
BAL EPA +1.1

(:01) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

+27%win chance to BAL

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: Andrews had 24 yards on 5 targets, close to his usual 30.

Profile
Targets5
Yards24
After the catch11
Yards on short throws100%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)3018%
CeeDee Lamb won it

Lamb won it deep: 49 of his 112 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.

Profile
Targets9
Yards112
After the catch39
Yards on short throws46%
deep share of yards44%
Expected (his usual)43%
Lamar Jackson won it

Jackson won it: +0.60 EPA a dropback, above his usual +0.10.

Profile
epa db0.5963989197922434
dropbacks20
Expected (his usual)10%

Every drive

Ravens drive left to right, Cowboys right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q1
FG · 10 pl · 57 yds
Q1
Downs · 4 pl · 9 yds
Q1
TD · 5 pl · 17 yds
Q1
TD · 6 pl · 65 yds
Q1
Punt · 4 pl · 15 yds
Q2
TD · 6 pl · 26 yds
Q2
Downs · 4 pl · 8 yds
Q2
FG · 8 pl · 39 yds
Q2
FG · 10 pl · 45 yds
Q2
Half · 1 pl · 4 yds
Q3
Turnover · 9 pl · 40 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · -4 yds
Q3
Missed FG · 5 pl · 36 yds
Q3
TD · 4 pl · 56 yds
Q3
TD · 7 pl · 54 yds
Q3
Downs · 8 pl · 76 yds
Q4
TD · 7 pl · 96 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q4
TD · 11 pl · 69 yds
Q4
FG · 8 pl · 45 yds
Q4
FG · 1 pl · 27 yds
BAL goal2040504020DAL goal

Side by side

378
Total yards
417
+0.13
EPA per play
+0.10
50%
Success rate
47%
20
First downs
25
0
Sacks taken
1
0
Turnovers
1
3/9
Third downs
5/13
Ravens leaders
PassingL.Jackson15/20 · 186 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingD.Henry26 car · 89 yds
ReceivingZ.Flowers5/6 · 84 yds
Cowboys leaders
PassingD.Prescott25/40 · 276 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingJ.Williams19 car · 98 yds
ReceivingC.Lamb7/9 · 112 yds

Scoring

Q1 08:1317-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.0-3
Q1 04:35(Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-9
Q1 04:3217-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.0-10
Q1 01:2251-E.Jones reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-10
Q1 01:1833-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.7-10
Q2 11:2922-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13-10
Q2 11:2333-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.14-10
Q2 04:4833-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.17-10
Q2 00:23(:23) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.17-13
Q3 03:508-L.Jackson pass short right to 17-C.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23-13
Q3 03:4433-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.24-13
Q3 01:53(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 87-J.Ferguson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24-19
Q3 01:48TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 88-C.Lamb is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.24-21
Q4 09:469-K.Turpin left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24-27
Q4 09:4217-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.24-28
Q4 01:348-L.Jackson pass short middle to 88-M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.30-28
Q4 01:3033-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.31-28
Q4 00:10(:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.31-31
Q4 00:01(:01) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.34-31

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had BAL 54%, the market BAL 60%. It finished BAL 34, DAL 31.

Pick published 27 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.