SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SF
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to BAL. BAL have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CLE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cleveland are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (4th, 4th, 5th). There's no obvious soft spot for Flowers to lean on.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 86th percentile for separation and 11th for hands, and Denzel Ward, Myles Harden and Mekhi Blackmon all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How BAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Baltimore rank 29th against deep balls, and 6% of Fannin's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 66th percentile for separation and 40th for hands, and Nate Wiggins and Chidobe Awuzie both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How CLE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cleveland rank 2nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (5th).
- Pressure: Cleveland are 2nd at getting sacks, and Baltimore are 26th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Ravens have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)BAL offenceCLE defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Ravens offence has a 24-place edge.
When the Browns have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CLE offenceBAL defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Ravens defence has a 15-place edge.
Form and history
Ravens this seasonBrowns this season23-16BAL at CLE2025-11
17-41CLE at BAL2025-09
10-35CLE at BAL2025-01
24-29BAL at CLE2024-10
33-31CLE at BAL2023-11
Injury report
Ravensmodel impact -0.7| Skylar ThompsonQB | IR |
| Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Wrist | IR |
| Adam RandallRB | IR |
| Durham SmytheTE · Achilles | IR |
| Bilhal KoneCB · Lower Body | IR |
| Jovaughn GwynOL · Lower Leg | IR |
| Ethan PocicOL · Knee | IR |
| Danny PinterG · Knee | IR |
| T.J. TampaDB · Knee | IR |
| Jahquez RobinsonDB | IR |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Ankle | Questionable |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Shoulder | Questionable |
Brownsmodel impact -1.0| Nathaniel WatsonLB · Knee | Out |
| Dillon GabrielQB · Back | IR |
| Dylan SampsonRB · Knee | IR |
| Raheim SandersRB · Hip | IR |
| Joe RoyerTE · Personal | PUP |
| Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Neck | PUP |
| Kalia DavisDL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Alex WrightDL · Achilles | IR |
| Damarri MathisDB | IR |
| Mason GrahamDL · Knee - MCL | Doubtful |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Knee | Questionable |
| Denzel BostonWR · Foot | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun WatsonCLE | Passing yards | 201.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 20% | |
| Deshaun WatsonCLErole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.35 | 40% | 20% | |
| Derrick HenryBAL | Rushing yards | 88.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Deshaun WatsonCLErole up | Rushing yards | 28.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 30% | |
| Denzel BostonCLE | Receiving yards | 54.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 0% | |
| Denzel BostonCLE | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 0% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors BAL (71%) by 6.5 points.