Browns at Buccaneers: week 2

Browns

won by 4

Final · week 2

23–19

at Raymond James Stadium · Sun 20 Sept

Buccaneers

lost by 4

How the game swung

The Buccaneers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Buccaneers ahead■ Browns ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 0:22 - Tampa Bay fourth down conversion by B.Mayfield (-26% WPA) sealed it.

Q1 1:19 · Turnover

B.Mayfield EPA -6.2

6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Harden at CLE 47. 26-M.Harden to TB 28 for 25 yards (17-T.Hurst).

+20%win chance to CLE

Q3 1:33 · Explosive play · nobody saw this coming

D.Watson EPA +5.2

(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 12-D.Boston for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+19%win chance to CLE

Q4 3:57 · Big play · nobody saw this coming

D.Watson EPA +3.1

4-D.Watson pass short left to 86-B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+19%win chance to CLE

Q4 0:33 · Other · nobody saw this coming

B.Mayfield EPA -0.6

(:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLE 20 for 3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).

+13%win chance to CLE

Q4 0:22 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

B.Mayfield EPA -2.2

(:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.

+26%win chance to CLE

Every drive

Browns drive left to right, Buccaneers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds

FG · 4 pl · 18 yds

FG · 6 pl · 45 yds

FG · 5 pl · 48 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -2 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 14 yds

FG · 5 pl · 5 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 26 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -2 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -1 yds

Downs · 4 pl · 9 yds

FG · 8 pl · 21 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

TD · 9 pl · 65 yds

FG · 10 pl · 58 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 8 yds

TD · 3 pl · 68 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 15 yds

FG · 6 pl · 71 yds

TD · 12 pl · 68 yds

Downs · 10 pl · 41 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

CLE goal2040504020TB goal

Side by side

269

Total yards

313

+0.01

EPA per play

-0.15

43%

Success rate

39%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

5/13

Third downs

7/16

Browns leaders

PassingD.Watson24/30 · 238 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT

RushingD.Watson7 car · 22 yds

ReceivingD.Boston5/7 · 95 yds

Buccaneers leaders

PassingB.Mayfield21/34 · 182 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT

RushingB.Irving17 car · 89 yds

ReceivingT.Johnson1/4 · 49 yds

Scoring

Q1 11:16	4-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	0-3
Q1 07:17	25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	3-3
Q1 04:06	4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	3-6
Q2 14:02	25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	6-6
Q2 00:15	(:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	6-9
Q3 09:39	6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-15
Q3 09:33	4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	6-16
Q3 03:48	25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	9-16
Q3 01:33	(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 12-D.Boston for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	15-16
Q3 01:23	25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	16-16
Q4 10:01	4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	16-19
Q4 03:57	4-D.Watson pass short left to 86-B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	22-19
Q4 03:51	25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	23-19

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had TB 71%, the market TB 78%. It finished CLE 23, TB 19.

Tampa Bay ranks #4 in turnovers (5.3%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.