This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to TB. MIN have been the more consistent team recently, while TB have struggled to find their form.

Key matchups

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Vikings have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

MIN offence

TB defence

OverallEPA per play

21st

17th

PassingEPA per dropback

19th

19th

RushingEPA per carry

19th

11th

Third downconversion rate

16th

24th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

31st

28th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Buccaneers defence has a 8-place edge.

When the Buccaneers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

TB offence

MIN defence

OverallEPA per play

28th

7th

PassingEPA per dropback

30th

13th

RushingEPA per carry

6th

4th

Third downconversion rate

10th

8th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

28th

4th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Vikings defence has a 24-place edge.

Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Vikings this season

W39-22wk 1 vs GBW9-3wk 2 at CHI

Buccaneers this season

L27-33wk 1 at CINL19-23wk 2 vs CLE

Last 1 meetingsMIN 0 · TB 1

20-17TB at MIN
2023-09

Injury report

Vikingsmodel impact 0.0

Jordan MasonRB · Thumb	IR
Ben YurosekTE	IR
Tyreek ChappellCB	IR
Michael JurgensOL	IR
Tyler BattyDL · Knee - ACL	IR
Jamal AdamsSS · Knee	IR
Jauan JenningsWR · Personal	Questionable
Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDE · Hip	Questionable
Jacob RobertsLB	Questionable
Naquan JonesDT	Questionable
Taki TaimaniDL	Questionable
Brett ThorsonP · Hamstring	Questionable

Buccaneersmodel impact 0.0

David SillsWR	IR
Josh HayesCB · Knee	IR
Deshawn McKnightDL · Hamstring	IR
Mohamed KamaraDL · Knee	IR
Jacob ParrishDB · Back	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.