Skip to main content
4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Vikings
won by 6
Final · week 2
9–3
at Soldier Field · Sun 20 Sept
Bears
lost by 6

How the game swung

The Bears' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 11:08: MIN score (3-0)Q1 05:08: CHI score (3-3)Q2 08:23: MIN score (6-3)Q4 01:12: MIN score (9-3)12345CHI winning ↑MIN winning ↓
■ Bears ahead■ Vikings ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 6:26 - Chicago momentum-shifting play by C.Santos (-25% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q3 9:42 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
D.Swift EPA -5.5

4-D.Swift right tackle to MIN 1 for no gain (61-J.Redmond; 0-I.Pace). FUMBLES (61-J.Redmond), RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 1. CHI-85-C.Kmet was injured during the play.

+20%win chance to MIN
2
Q4 11:42 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
C.Williams EPA +3.1

(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift to MIN 32 for 32 yards (55-E.Wilson).

+15%win chance to CHI
3
Q4 6:26 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
CHI EPA -3.1

8-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-19-T.Taylor at MIN 12.

+25%win chance to MIN
4
Q4 0:38 · Other · nobody saw this coming
T.Bagent EPA +1.8

(:38) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at MIN 20 for 21 yards (2-I.Rodgers).

+15%win chance to CHI
5
Q4 0:01 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
T.Bagent EPA -2.6

(:01) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner).

+22%win chance to MIN

Every drive

Vikings drive left to right, Bears right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
FG · 8 pl · 55 yds
Q1
FG · 8 pl · 47 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q1
Turnover · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q2
FG · 10 pl · 33 yds
Q2
Punt · 13 pl · 51 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 16 yds
Q2
Half · 2 pl · -10 yds
Q3
Turnover · 11 pl · 64 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 30 yds
Q3
Punt · 6 pl · 21 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 21 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 13 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 14 yds
Q4
Missed FG · 11 pl · 62 yds
Q4
FG · 10 pl · 62 yds
Q4
Downs · 7 pl · 44 yds
MIN goal2040504020CHI goal

Side by side

246
Total yards
297
-0.08
EPA per play
-0.13
33%
Success rate
32%
10
First downs
17
3
Sacks taken
4
0
Turnovers
2
3/13
Third downs
5/15
Vikings leaders
PassingC.Wentz11/20 · 143 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
RushingA.Jones23 car · 105 yds
ReceivingJ.Jefferson3/6 · 55 yds
Bears leaders
PassingC.Williams15/26 · 138 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
RushingK.Monangai10 car · 47 yds
ReceivingD.Swift5/5 · 54 yds

Scoring

Q1 11:0816-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.3-0
Q1 05:088-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.3-3
Q2 08:2316-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.6-3
Q4 01:1216-W.Reichard 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.9-3

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had CHI 67%, the market CHI 66%. It finished MIN 9, CHI 3.

Pure variance - no actionable learning. Process was sound.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.