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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Bears
won by 22
Final · week 1
59–37
at Bank of America Stadium · Sun 13 Sept
Panthers
lost by 22

How the game swung

The Panthers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 11:40: CAR score (0-6)Q1 11:33: CAR score (0-7)Q1 06:03: CHI score (6-7)Q1 05:52: CHI score (7-7)Q1 02:03: CHI score (13-7)Q1 01:59: CHI score (14-7)Q2 14:05: CHI score (20-7)Q2 13:57: CHI score (21-7)Q2 12:49: CAR score (21-13)Q2 12:40: CAR score (21-14)Q2 08:51: CAR score (21-20)Q2 08:42: CAR score (21-21)Q2 05:24: CHI score (24-21)Q2 02:39: CAR score (24-24)Q2 00:32: CHI score (30-24)Q2 00:22: CHI score (31-24)Q3 09:06: CAR score (31-30)Q3 09:02: CAR score (31-31)Q3 03:08: CHI score (37-31)Q3 03:05: CHI score (38-31)Q3 00:50: CHI score (44-31)Q3 00:40: CHI score (45-31)Q4 06:32: CHI score (51-31)Q4 06:27: CHI score (52-31)Q4 04:05: CAR score (52-37)Q4 03:47: CHI score (58-37)Q4 03:40: CHI score (59-37)12345CAR winning ↑CHI winning ↓
■ Panthers ahead■ Bears ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q2 7:07 - Chicago turnover by T.Taylor (+20% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q1 3:01 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
C.Williams EPA +3.8

(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at CAR 6 for 47 yards (24-W.Lee). CAR-97-B.Brown was injured during the play.

+15%win chance to CHI
2
Q2 12:49 · Explosive play
B.Young EPA +4.6

9-B.Young pass deep left to 18-J.Coker for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+11%win chance to CAR
3
Q2 7:07 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
Ji.Horn EPA +4.9

19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.

+20%win chance to CHI
4
Q2 3:41 · Other · nobody saw this coming
B.Young EPA +3.4

(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 25-J.Brooks to CHI 26 for 48 yards (1-J.Johnson).

+14%win chance to CAR
5
Q2 0:11 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
B.Young EPA -0.5

(:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left intended for 18-J.Coker INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Muhammad at CHI 38. 24-M.Muhammad to CHI 38 for no gain. CHI-24-M.Muhammad was injured during the play.

+10%win chance to CHI

Every drive

Bears drive left to right, Panthers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Turnover · 3 pl · 20 yds
Q1
TD · 6 pl · 50 yds
Q1
TD · 9 pl · 82 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · -3 yds
Q1
TD · 6 pl · 67 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 11 yds
Q2
TD · 2 pl · 41 yds
Q2
TD · 3 pl · 73 yds
Q2
Downs · 4 pl · 9 yds
Q2
TD · 3 pl · 24 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q2
FG · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q2
FG · 6 pl · 53 yds
Q2
TD · 6 pl · 85 yds
Q2
Turnover · 2 pl · 11 yds
Q2
Half · 1 pl · 0 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 1 yds
Q3
TD · 7 pl · 58 yds
Q3
TD · 13 pl · 65 yds
Q3
Downs · 6 pl · 26 yds
Q3
TD · 1 pl · 61 yds
Q3
Turnover · 3 pl · 32 yds
Q4
TD · 12 pl · 66 yds
Q4
TD · 10 pl · 86 yds
Q4
TD · 4 pl · 44 yds
Q4
Half · 7 pl · 52 yds
CHI goal2040504020CAR goal

Side by side

552
Total yards
478
+0.41
EPA per play
+0.18
54%
Success rate
48%
24
First downs
22
2
Sacks taken
2
1
Turnovers
2
10/14
Third downs
4/9
Bears leaders
PassingC.Williams21/29 · 269 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingD.Swift18 car · 124 yds
ReceivingK.Raymond8/9 · 84 yds
Panthers leaders
PassingB.Young23/37 · 361 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
RushingC.Hubbard10 car · 49 yds
ReceivingJ.Coker8/9 · 138 yds

Scoring

Q1 11:40(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 11:3310-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.0-7
Q1 06:03(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-7
Q1 05:528-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.7-7
Q1 02:03(No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.13-7
Q1 01:598-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.14-7
Q2 14:0518-C.Williams pass deep left to 85-C.Kmet for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.20-7
Q2 13:578-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CAR-95-D.Brown was injured during the play.21-7
Q2 12:499-B.Young pass deep left to 18-J.Coker for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21-13
Q2 12:4010-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.21-14
Q2 08:519-B.Young scrambles right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21-20
Q2 08:4210-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.21-21
Q2 05:248-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.24-21
Q2 02:3910-R.Fitzgerald 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.24-24
Q2 00:32(:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.30-24
Q2 00:228-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.31-24
Q3 09:0630-C.Hubbard left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-68-D.Lewis has returned to the game.31-30
Q3 09:0210-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.31-31
Q3 03:08(No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.37-31
Q3 03:058-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: CHI-70-B.Jones has returned to the game.38-31
Q3 00:50(:50) 25-K.Monangai up the middle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-97-B.Brown has returned to the game.44-31
Q3 00:408-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.45-31
Q4 06:3218-C.Williams pass short right to 9-J.Walker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.51-31
Q4 06:278-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.52-31
Q4 04:05(No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.52-37
Q4 03:474-D.Swift right guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.58-37
Q4 03:408-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.59-37

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had CHI 69%, the market CHI 60%. It finished CHI 59, CAR 37.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.