49ers at Rams: week 1 | Fourth and Data

49ers

won by 20

Final · week 1

27–7

at Melbourne Cricket Ground · Thu 10 Sept

Rams

lost by 20

How the game swung

The Rams' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Rams ahead■ 49ers ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q2 4:35 - San Francisco key play by B.Purdy (+12% WPA) flipped the script.

Q2 12:09 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

B.Purdy EPA -4.6

13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Lake at LA 31. 37-Q.Lake to LA 31 for no gain (85-G.Kittle).

+8%win chance to LA

Q2 8:58 · Turnover

M.Stafford EPA -3.0

(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 12-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Green at SF 14. 0-R.Green to SF 14 for no gain (12-P.Nacua).

+5%win chance to SF

Q2 4:35 · Other · nobody saw this coming

B.Purdy EPA +4.1

13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+12%win chance to SF

Q3 3:46 · Fourth down

M.Stafford EPA -3.8

9-M.Stafford right guard to SF 1 for no gain (92-O.Odighizuwa). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

+6%win chance to SF

Q4 11:19 · Turnover

M.Stafford EPA -5.3

(No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee to LA 44 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner; 57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-56-K.White at LA 43.

+2%win chance to SF

Every drive

49ers drive left to right, Rams right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds

FG · 14 pl · 65 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 15 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds

TD · 4 pl · 57 yds

Turnover · 6 pl · 23 yds

Turnover · 7 pl · 34 yds

TD · 9 pl · 86 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 23 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 26 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

TD · 7 pl · 51 yds

Downs · 12 pl · 72 yds

TD · 11 pl · 99 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 17 yds

FG · 3 pl · 5 yds

Downs · 6 pl · 19 yds

Missed FG · 6 pl · 16 yds

Half · 10 pl · 45 yds

SF goal2040504020LA goal

Side by side

379

Total yards

291

+0.18

EPA per play

-0.26

56%

Success rate

43%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

7/12

Third downs

2/9

49ers leaders

PassingB.Purdy25/34 · 205 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT

RushingC.McCaffrey10 car · 68 yds

ReceivingD.Robinson2/3 · 50 yds

Rams leaders

PassingM.Stafford15/25 · 155 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT

RushingB.Corum10 car · 54 yds

ReceivingP.Nacua5/9 · 74 yds

Scoring

Q1 06:17	18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.	3-0
Q2 15:00	23-K.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	3-6
Q2 14:57	92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.	3-7
Q2 04:35	13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	9-7
Q2 04:28	18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.	10-7
Q3 11:07	13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	16-7
Q3 11:03	18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.	17-7
Q4 13:04	(Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	23-7
Q4 12:57	18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.	24-7
Q4 09:48	18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.	27-7

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had LA 67%, the market LA 64%. It finished SF 27, LA 7.

LA Rams ranks #6 in turnovers (4.9%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 10 Sept, 19:02 UK, before kickoff.