This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to BUF. BUF have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Khalil Shakir · against LV

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

80%

Intermediate

15%

Deep (20+)

5%

Left side

30%

Middle

25%

Right side

46%

How LV defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

26th

Intermediate

26th

Deep (20+)

6th

Left side

13th

Middle

24th

Right side

27th

Yards after catch allowed

16th

Sack rate forced

11th

The read

1. Las Vegas rank 26th against short throws, which make up 80% of Shakir's targets.
2. Work the right side: 46% of his targets go that way and Las Vegas rank 27th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Brock Bowers · against BUF

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

67%

Intermediate

24%

Deep (20+)

9%

Left side

34%

Middle

31%

Right side

35%

How BUF defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

10th

Intermediate

22nd

Deep (20+)

16th

Left side

25th

Middle

13th

Right side

5th

Yards after catch allowed

7th

Sack rate forced

22nd

The read

1. Buffalo rank 22nd against intermediate throws, which make up 24% of Bowers's targets.
2. Don't force deep balls: they've been Bowers's worst return (-0.13 EPA a target), and Buffalo are 16th there.
3. Work the left side: 34% of his targets go that way and Buffalo rank 25th defending throws there.
4. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 11th percentile for separation and 48th for hands, and Christian Benford, Taron Johnson and Tre'Davious White all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
5. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Bills have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

BUF offence

LV defence

OverallEPA per play

1st

19th

PassingEPA per dropback

2nd

22nd

RushingEPA per carry

6th

9th

Third downconversion rate

2nd

22nd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

18th

10th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Bills offence has a 20-place edge.

When the Raiders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LV offence

BUF defence

OverallEPA per play

14th

30th

PassingEPA per dropback

11th

28th

RushingEPA per carry

29th

23rd

Third downconversion rate

14th

23rd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

5th

22nd

Biggest gap: passing, where the Raiders offence has a 17-place edge.

Form and history

Bills this season

W36-31wk 1 at HOUW41-31wk 2 vs DETW24-16wk 3 vs LACL26-29wk 4 vs NEW37-34wk 5 at LA

Raiders this season

W27-13wk 1 vs MIAW26-14wk 2 at LACW35-27wk 3 at NOL27-30wk 4 vs KCL17-45wk 5 at NE

Last 1 meetingsBUF 1 · LV 0

10-38LV at BUF
2023-09

Injury report

Billsmodel impact 0.0

Tyrell ShaversWR · Knee - ACL	PUP
Dorian StrongCB · Neck	PUP
Zane DurantDT	IR
Jordan HancockDB · Hamstring	IR
DJ MooreWR · Shoulder - AC Joint	Questionable
Joshua PalmerWR · Shoulder	Questionable
Ty JohnsonRB · Hamstring	Questionable
Te'Cory CouchCB · Hamstring	Questionable
Ed OliverDT · Knee	Questionable
T.J. SandersDL · Shoulder	Questionable
Dee AlfordDB · Ankle	Questionable
Spencer BrownOT · Back	Questionable

Raidersmodel impact 0.0

Tyler ScottWR	Out
Corey RuckerWR	IR
Jack BechWR · Forearm	IR
Dont'e ThorntonWR	IR
Chris CollierRB	IR
Carter RunyonTE	IR
Chigozie AnusiemCB · Knee	IR
Keyron CrawfordDE · Ankle	IR
Brennan JacksonDE	IR
Justin PickettG	IR
Jalen NailorWR · Concussion	Questionable
Brock BowersTE · Knee	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.