TB
DAL
PHI
JAX
CHI
GB
CIN
MIA
CLE
NYJ
HOU
TEN
IND
PIT
LV
NE
MIN
NO
NYG
WAS
DEN
LAC
DET
ARI
BAL
ATL
BUF
LA
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to SEA. SF have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 4.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Evans's likeliest route is short throws (41% of his targets), where they rank 14th.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 2nd percentile for separation and 77th for hands, and Josh Jobe, Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen and Nehemiah Pritchett all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- San Francisco rank 23rd against short throws, which make up 50% of Smith-Njigba's targets.
- Work the left side: 45% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 29th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle rank 2nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (14th).
- Pressure: Seattle are 12th at getting sacks, and San Francisco are 2nd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the 49ers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SF offenceSEA defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Seahawks defence has a 13-place edge.
When the Seahawks have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SEA offenceSF defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Seahawks offence has a 14-place edge.
Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
49ers this seasonSeahawks this season6-41SF at SEA2026-01
13-3SEA at SF2026-01
17-13SF at SEA2025-09
20-17SEA at SF2024-11
36-24SF at SEA2024-10
Injury report
49ersmodel impact 0.0| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Ankle | IR |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Ankle | IR |
| Christian KirkWR · Calf | IR |
| Isaac GuerendoRB · Pectoral | PUP |
| Jake TongesTE · Knee | IR |
| Nate HobbsCB · Groin | IR |
| Mikail KamaraDE · Knee | IR |
| Sam OkuayinonuDE · Foot | IR |
| Andrew FarmerLB · Back | IR |
| Nick MartinLB | IR |
| C.J. WestDT | IR |
Seahawksmodel impact 0.0| Jacardia WrightRB · Foot | Out |
| Jake BoboWR · Knee | IR |
| Irv CharlesWR | IR |
| Robbie OuztsRB | IR |
| Jadarian PriceRB · Chest | IR |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Anthony BradfordOL · Knee | IR |
| Mason RichmanOL · Knee | IR |
| Bud ClarkDB · Ankle | IR |
| Leonard WilliamsDE · Ankle | Questionable |
| Aaron SmithLB | Questionable |
| Chazz SurrattLB · Calf | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors SEA (55%) by 4.3 points.