PIT
CLE
IND
WAS
ARI
NYG
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
SF look like a strong play here. SF have been rolling at home, winning 3 of their last 3.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- San Francisco rank 24th against deep balls, and 18% of Waddle's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the left side: 44% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 28th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Denver are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (8th, 10th, 9th). There's no obvious soft spot for Evans to lean on.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 5th percentile for separation and 70th for hands, and Riley Moss, Ja'Quan McMillian, Patrick Surtain II and Jahdae Barron all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How SF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- San Francisco rank 27th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 24th against deep balls.
- Pressure: San Francisco are 32nd at getting sacks, and Denver are 4th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Broncos have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DEN offenceSF defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Broncos offence has a 12-place edge.
When the 49ers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SF offenceDEN defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the 49ers offence has a 26-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Broncos this season49ers this season10-11SF at DEN2022-09
Injury report
Broncosmodel impact 0.0| Jonah ColemanRB · Ankle | IR |
| Caleb LohnerTE · Lower Body | IR |
| Matt HenningsenDE · Achilles | IR |
| Levelle BaileyLB · Leg | IR |
| Nick GargiuloOL · Knee | PUP |
| Michael DeiterOL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Frank CrumOT | IR |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Leg | Questionable |
| Marvin MimsWR · Foot | Questionable |
| Duplicate PlayerILB | COV |
| Josh BanderasOLB | COV |
| Jonathon CooperDL | NA |
49ersmodel impact 0.0| Nick BosaDE · Calf | Out |
| James ThompsonDT · Ankle | Out |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Ankle | IR |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Ankle | IR |
| Christian KirkWR · Calf | IR |
| Isaac GuerendoRB · Pectoral | PUP |
| Jake TongesTE · Knee | IR |
| Nate HobbsCB · Groin | IR |
| Mikail KamaraDE · Knee | IR |
| Sam OkuayinonuDE · Foot | IR |
| Andrew FarmerLB · Back | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors SF (73%) by 7.7 points.