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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Texans
lost by 2
Final · week 3
17–19
at Lucas Oil Stadium · Sun 27 Sept
Colts
won by 2

How the game swung

The Colts' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 04:32: IND score (0-3)Q2 11:13: IND score (0-9)Q2 11:08: IND score (0-10)Q2 04:34: HOU score (6-10)Q2 04:30: HOU score (7-10)Q2 01:08: IND score (7-13)Q4 12:47: IND score (7-16)Q4 07:36: HOU score (10-16)Q4 01:50: HOU score (16-16)Q4 01:48: HOU score (17-16)Q4 00:21: IND score (17-19)12345IND winning ↑HOU winning ↓
■ Colts ahead■ Texans ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 0:21 - Indianapolis momentum-shifting play by S.Shrader (+36% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q1 11:28 · Turnover
D.Jones EPA -6.3

17-D.Jones sacked at IND 39 for -8 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson), touched at IND 44, RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at IND 42. 51-W.Anderson to IND 40 for 2 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox). FUMBLES (81-M.Alie-Cox), recovered by HOU-3-K.Lassiter at IND 40.

+16%win chance to HOU
2
Q4 4:45 · Turnover
D.Jones EPA -5.5

(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at HOU 45 for -6 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-72-T.Togiai at HOU 46. Fumble Forced by 55-D.Hunter.

+13%win chance to HOU
3
Q4 0:29 · Other · nobody saw this coming
J.Taylor EPA -0.8

(:29) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end to HOU 41 for -1 yards (51-W.Anderson).

+12%win chance to HOU
4
Q4 0:21 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
IND EPA +1.3

(:21) 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

+36%win chance to IND
5
Q4 0:01 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
C.Stroud EPA -0.3

(:01) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right.

+26%win chance to IND

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Defence won it

Indianapolis won it: Schultz held to 30 yards on 3 targets, against his usual 53.

Profile
Targets3
Yards30
After the catch3
Yards on short throws43%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)3%
Even

Even: Allen had 63 yards on 9 targets, close to his usual 40.

Profile
Targets9
Yards63
After the catch19
Yards on short throws27%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)16%
Defence won it

Houston won it: Jones managed -0.17 EPA a dropback, well below his usual +0.09.

Profile
epa db-0.17178856503454396
dropbacks40
Expected (his usual)9%

Every drive

Texans drive left to right, Colts right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · -1 yds
Q1
Turnover · 4 pl · 8 yds
Q1
Downs · 4 pl · 9 yds
Q1
FG · 12 pl · 53 yds
Q1
Punt · 4 pl · 4 yds
Q1
TD · 12 pl · 69 yds
Q2
TD · 12 pl · 52 yds
Q2
FG · 8 pl · 25 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q2
Half · 1 pl · 4 yds
Q3
Turnover · 7 pl · 45 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · -3 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q3
FG · 14 pl · 51 yds
Q4
FG · 9 pl · 71 yds
Q4
Turnover · 5 pl · 19 yds
Q4
TD · 7 pl · 54 yds
Q4
FG · 5 pl · 29 yds
Q4
Half · 3 pl · 17 yds
HOU goal2040504020IND goal

Side by side

223
Total yards
300
-0.09
EPA per play
-0.11
41%
Success rate
41%
15
First downs
19
3
Sacks taken
4
0
Turnovers
3
4/11
Third downs
7/15
Texans leaders
PassingC.Stroud16/27 · 167 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingD.Montgomery11 car · 33 yds
ReceivingX.Hutchinson3/6 · 51 yds
Colts leaders
PassingD.Jones24/36 · 235 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
RushingJ.Taylor23 car · 68 yds
ReceivingJ.Downs5/11 · 77 yds

Scoring

Q1 04:323-S.Shrader 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ** Injury Update: IND-3-S.Shrader has returned to the game.0-3
Q2 11:13(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 10-K.Allen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-9
Q2 11:083-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.0-10
Q2 04:3457-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.6-10
Q2 04:3015-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.7-10
Q2 01:083-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.7-13
Q4 12:473-S.Shrader 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.7-16
Q4 07:3615-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.10-16
Q4 01:5057-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.16-16
Q4 01:4815-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.17-16
Q4 00:21(:21) 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.17-19

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had HOU 52%, the market HOU 53%. It finished HOU 17, IND 19.

Indianapolis ranks #8 in turnovers (3.8%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 27 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.