This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to HOU.

Key matchups

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Texans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

HOU offence

IND defence

OverallEPA per play

26th

32nd

PassingEPA per dropback

23rd

29th

RushingEPA per carry

28th

31st

Third downconversion rate

19th

14th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

18th

23rd

Biggest gap: overall, where the Texans offence has a 6-place edge.

When the Colts have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

IND offence

HOU defence

OverallEPA per play

18th

20th

PassingEPA per dropback

29th

24th

RushingEPA per carry

3rd

7th

Third downconversion rate

19th

10th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

5th

3rd

Biggest gap: third down, where the Texans defence has a 9-place edge.

Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Texans this season

L31-36wk 1 vs BUFL6-20wk 2 vs CIN

Colts this season

L23-41wk 1 vs BALL30-33wk 2 at KC

Last 5 meetingsHOU 5 · IND 0

30-38IND at HOU
2026-01

20-16HOU at IND
2025-11

20-23IND at HOU
2024-10

29-27HOU at IND
2024-09

23-19HOU at IND
2024-01

Injury report

Texansmodel impact 0.0

Graham MertzQB · Knee - ACL	IR
Jayden HigginsWR · Knee - ACL	IR
Tank DellWR · Knee - ACL + MCL	IR
Ja'Marcus IngramCB · Shoulder	IR
Ali GayeDE · Knee	IR
Henry To'oTo'oLB · Shoulder	IR
E.J. SpeedLB · Quadriceps	PUP
K.C. OssaiLB	IR
Braden SmithOL · Foot	IR
Sam HagenOL	IR
M.J. StewartDB	PUP
Kayden McDonaldDL · Ankle	IR

Coltsmodel impact 0.0

D.J. MontgomeryWR · Abdomen	IR
Will MalloryTE · Thumb	IR
Carson TowtTE	IR
Micheal ClemonsDL · Toe	IR
Cameron MitchellDB	IR
Alec PierceWR · Heel	Doubtful
Ashton DulinWR · Ankle	Questionable
DJ GiddensRB · Knee	Questionable
Charvarius WardCB · Groin	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.