PIT
CLE
IND
WAS
ARI
NYG
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
DEN
SF
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to DAL. HOU have been struggling, dropping 3 of their last 3.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How HOU defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Houston rank 22nd against deep balls, and 19% of Lamb's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 56th percentile for separation and 32nd for hands, and Derek Stingley Jr. allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Dallas rank 28th against short throws, which make up 81% of Schultz's targets.
- Work the left side: 32% of his targets go that way and Dallas rank 31st defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How DAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Dallas rank 31st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 29th against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Dallas are 27th at getting sacks, and Houston are 7th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Cowboys have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DAL offenceHOU defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Cowboys offence has a 15-place edge.
When the Texans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)HOU offenceDAL defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Texans offence has a 10-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Cowboys this seasonTexans this season34-10HOU at DAL2024-11
23-27HOU at DAL2022-12
Injury report
Cowboysmodel impact 0.0| Jonathan BullardDE · Calf | Out |
| Jalen ThompsonDB · Hamstring | Out |
| Malik DavisRB · Hip | IR |
| DJ RogersTE · Knee | IR |
| Princeton FantTE · Knee - ACL + MCL | IR |
| Devin MooreCB | IR |
| Marist LiufauLB · Forearm | IR |
| Kelvin GilliamDT · Triceps | IR |
| Tyler SmithOL · Thumb | IR |
| Matt HennessyOL · Neck | IR |
| P.J. LockeDB · Foot | IR |
| Cobie DurantDB · Hamstring | Doubtful |
Texansmodel impact 0.0| Graham MertzQB · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Jayden HigginsWR · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tank DellWR · Knee - ACL + MCL | IR |
| Ja'Marcus IngramCB · Shoulder | IR |
| Solomon ByrdDE · Ankle | IR |
| Ali GayeDE · Knee | IR |
| Jake HummelLB · Groin | IR |
| Henry To'oTo'oLB · Shoulder | IR |
| E.J. SpeedLB · Quadriceps | PUP |
| K.C. OssaiLB | IR |
| Braden SmithOL · Foot | IR |
| Sam HagenOL | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors DAL (56%) by 0.3 points.