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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Cowboys
lost by 8
Final · week 1
20–28
at MetLife Stadium · Sun 13 Sept
Giants
won by 8

How the game swung

The Giants' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 06:45: NYG score (0-6)Q1 06:40: NYG score (0-7)Q2 05:48: DAL score (6-7)Q2 05:44: DAL score (7-7)Q2 00:25: NYG score (7-13)Q2 00:20: NYG score (7-14)Q3 07:04: NYG score (7-20)Q3 06:59: NYG score (7-21)Q3 00:41: DAL score (13-21)Q3 00:37: DAL score (14-21)Q4 07:31: NYG score (14-27)Q4 07:26: NYG score (14-28)Q4 05:26: DAL score (20-28)12NYG winning ↑DAL winning ↓
■ Giants ahead■ Cowboys ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The plays that decided it

Q2 2:00 - NY Giants turnover by T.Tracy (-11% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q2 2:00 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
T.Tracy EPA -3.2

(Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end to DAL 21 for 8 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-28-S.Revel at DAL 19. 28-S.Revel to DAL 16 for -3 yards (78-A.Thomas).

+11%win chance to DAL
2
Q2 0:58 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
D.Prescott EPA -2.0

(:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG 45. 8-J.Holland ran ob at NYG 45 for no gain.

+6%win chance to NYG

Every drive

Cowboys drive left to right, Giants right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds
Q1
TD · 10 pl · 63 yds
Q1
Punt · 9 pl · 32 yds
Q1
Punt · 7 pl · 26 yds
Q2
TD · 10 pl · 48 yds
Q2
Turnover · 8 pl · 64 yds
Q2
Turnover · 6 pl · 20 yds
Q2
TD · 6 pl · 60 yds
Q2
Half · 3 pl · 13 yds
Q3
TD · 12 pl · 74 yds
Q3
TD · 12 pl · 63 yds
Q3
TD · 13 pl · 70 yds
Q4
TD · 9 pl · 59 yds
Q4
Half · 9 pl · 42 yds
DAL goal2040504020NYG goal

Side by side

244
Total yards
399
+0.22
EPA per play
+0.37
46%
Success rate
60%
16
First downs
26
0
Sacks taken
2
1
Turnovers
1
8/11
Third downs
9/10
Cowboys leaders
PassingD.Prescott22/34 · 175 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
RushingJ.Williams12 car · 41 yds
ReceivingC.Lamb5/8 · 44 yds
Giants leaders
PassingJ.Dart23/29 · 230 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
RushingC.Skattebo18 car · 81 yds
ReceivingI.Likely8/8 · 78 yds

Scoring

Q1 06:45(Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 06:4034-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.0-7
Q2 05:48(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.6-7
Q2 05:4417-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.7-7
Q2 00:25(:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7-13
Q2 00:2034-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.7-14
Q3 07:046-J.Dart pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7-20
Q3 06:5934-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.7-21
Q3 00:41(:41) 33-J.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.13-21
Q3 00:3717-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.14-21
Q4 07:31(Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14-27
Q4 07:2634-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.14-28
Q4 05:26(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NYG-20-G.Newsome has returned to the game. PENALTY 20-28

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had DAL 74%, the market DAL 59%. It finished DAL 20, NYG 28.

Pure variance - no actionable learning. Process was sound.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.