CAR
GB
ARI
DAL
ATL
TB
BUF
CLE
LV
NYJ
DET
CIN
LAC
LA
DEN
NE
MIA
PHI
CHI
SEA
JAX look like a strong play here.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Allen's likeliest route is deep balls (9% of his targets), where they rank 15th.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How IND defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Indianapolis are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Washington's likeliest route is deep balls (26% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
- Work the left side: 49% of his targets go that way and Indianapolis rank 21st defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 8th percentile for separation and 18th for hands, and Mekhi Blackmon and Charvarius Ward both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville rank 4th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (15th).
- Pressure: Jacksonville are 28th at getting sacks, and Indianapolis are 19th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Colts have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)IND offenceJAX defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Jaguars defence has a 18-place edge.
When the Jaguars have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)JAX offenceIND defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Jaguars offence has a 22-place edge.
Form and history
Colts this season
23-41wk 1 vs BALL
30-33wk 2 at KCW
19-17wk 3 vs HOUW
30-13wk 4 at WASL
22-34wk 5 at PITL
20-26wk 6 vs TENL
10-16wk 7 at MINJaguars this season23-17JAX at IND2025-12
19-36IND at JAX2025-12
23-26JAX at IND2025-01
34-37IND at JAX2024-10
20-37IND at JAX2023-10
Injury report
Coltsmodel impact -0.5| Alec PierceWR · Heel | IR |
| D.J. MontgomeryWR · Abdomen | IR |
| Carson TowtTE | IR |
| Arden KeyDE · Hamstring | IR |
| Cam Taylor-BrittDB · Groin | IR |
| Micheal ClemonsDL · Toe | IR |
| Cameron MitchellDB | IR |
| Anthony GouldWR · Concussion | Questionable |
| Tyler WarrenTE · Groin | Questionable |
| Justin WalleyCB | Questionable |
| CJ AllenLB · Ankle | Questionable |
| Bryce BoettcherLB · Groin | Questionable |
Jaguarsmodel impact 0.0| Zach DurfeeDE · Upper Body | IR |
| B.J. Green IIDE · Elbow | IR |
| Parker HughesLB | IR |
| Jared BartlettLB · Leg | IR |
| Patrick MekariOL · Back | IR |
| Anton HarrisonOL · Knee | IR |
| Sam MustipherOL | IR |
| Caleb RansawDB · Knee | IR |
| Garrett DiGiorgioG | IR |
| Jaylon JonesCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Ross MatiscikLS · Shoulder | Questionable |
| Montaric BrownDB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors JAX (76%) by 10.2 points.