SEA
DEN
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
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NE
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LA
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KC
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JAX look like the play here. HOU have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5. JAX have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Collins's likeliest route is deep balls (20% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Collins's worst return (-0.02 EPA a target), and Jacksonville are 1st there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 3rd percentile for separation and 93rd for hands, and Jarrian Jones and Jourdan Lewis both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How HOU defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Houston rank 20th against deep balls, and 25% of Washington's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 10th percentile for separation and 50th for hands, and Derek Stingley Jr. allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville rank 5th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (13th).
- Pressure: Jacksonville are 26th at getting sacks, and Houston are 7th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Texans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)HOU offenceJAX defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Jaguars defence has a 25-place edge.
When the Jaguars have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)JAX offenceHOU defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Texans defence has a 16-place edge.
Form and history
Texans this season
Jaguars this season29-36JAX at HOU2025-11
10-17HOU at JAX2025-09
23-20HOU at JAX2024-12
20-24JAX at HOU2024-09
24-21JAX at HOU2023-11
Injury report
Texansmodel impact -0.7| Noah WhittingtonRB · Quadriceps | Out |
| Graham MertzQB · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Jayden HigginsWR · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tank DellWR · Knee - ACL + MCL | IR |
| British BrooksRB · Hamstring | IR |
| Jaylin SmithCB · Hamstring | IR |
| Ja'Marcus IngramCB · Shoulder | IR |
| Mario EdwardsDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Solomon ByrdDE · Ankle | IR |
| Ali GayeDE · Knee | IR |
| Jake HummelLB · Groin | IR |
| Henry To'oTo'oLB · Shoulder | IR |
Jaguarsmodel impact -0.7| Zach DurfeeDE · Upper Body | IR |
| B.J. GreenDE · Elbow | IR |
| Parker HughesLB | IR |
| Jared BartlettLB · Leg | IR |
| Patrick MekariOL · Back | IR |
| Anton HarrisonOL · Knee | IR |
| Sam MustipherOL | IR |
| Caleb RansawDB · Knee | IR |
| Garrett DiGiorgioG | IR |
| Nate BoerkircherTE · Back | Questionable |
| Jourdan LewisCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Jaylon JonesCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudHOUrole up | Passing yards | 257.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 10% | |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Passing yards | 227.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 30% | |
| C.J. StroudHOUrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.26 | 42% | 30% | |
| Trevor LawrenceJAXrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.49 | 38% | 40% | |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX | Rushing yards | 63.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 50% | |
| C.J. StroudHOUrole up | Rushing yards | 9.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX | Rushing yards | 16.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 88% | |
| Trevor LawrenceJAXrole up | Rushing yards | 13.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 20% | |
| Woody MarksHOU | Rushing yards | 47.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX | Receiving yards | 8.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 50% | |
| Brenton StrangeJAX | Receiving yards | 37.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 30% | |
| Brian Thomas JrJAX | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 60% | |
| Dalton SchultzHOUrole up | Receiving yards | 32.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Jakobi MeyersJAXrole up | Receiving yards | 32.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 90% | |
| Josh CameronJAX | Receiving yards | 16.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Kayshon BoutteHOUrole up | Receiving yards | 25.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 70% | |
| Nate BoerkircherJAX | Receiving yards | 4.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 80% | |
| Nico CollinsHOU | Receiving yards | 76.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Parker WashingtonJAXrole up | Receiving yards | 61.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 10% | |
| Woody MarksHOU | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 50% | |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.84 | 51% | 50% | |
| Brenton StrangeJAXrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.63 | 58% | 30% | |
| Brian Thomas JrJAX | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 70% | |
| Dalton SchultzHOU | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.07 | 46% | 40% | |
| Jakobi MeyersJAX | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.61 | 59% | 90% | |
| Josh CameronJAX | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.79 | 53% | 30% | |
| Kayshon BoutteHOUrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.21 | 43% | 70% | |
| Nate BoerkircherJAX | Receptions | 0.5 | 1.55 | 61% | 100% | |
| Nico CollinsHOU | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 30% | |
| Parker WashingtonJAXrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.79 | 53% | 20% | |
| Woody MarksHOU | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.79 | 53% | 50% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors JAX (64%) by 4.2 points.