ATL
GB
CAR
CLE
CIN
PIT
IND
KC
MIA
LAC
NE
JAX
NYJ
DET
SEA
WAS
TEN
NYG
ARI
SF
MIN
TB
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
LA
DEN
PHI
CHI
How the game swung
The Texans' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.
The five plays that decided it
Q4 1:41 - Buffalo momentum-shifting play by J.Allen (+32% WPA) sealed it.
(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 20 for 40 yards (2-C.Bullock).
(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
(:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
(:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).
(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.
Every drive
Bills drive left to right, Texans right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.
Downs · 7 pl · 30 ydsTurnover · 3 pl · 1 ydsFG · 3 pl · 9 ydsTD · 12 pl · 76 ydsTD · 6 pl · 67 ydsTD · 13 pl · 65 ydsTD · 3 pl · 19 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 8 ydsTD · 3 pl · 96 ydsTD · 4 pl · 65 ydsHalf · 2 pl · 3 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 5 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 29 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 5 ydsFG · 5 pl · 12 ydsTD · 13 pl · 72 ydsFG · 6 pl · 52 ydsFG · 6 pl · 36 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 0 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 1 ydsTD · 8 pl · 93 ydsTurnover · 10 pl · 47 ydsHalf · 0 pl · 0 ydsSide by side
Bills leadersTexans leadersScoring
| Q1 07:32 | | 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 3-0 |
| Q1 00:37 | | (:37) 32-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. | 3-6 |
| Q1 00:32 | | 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. | 3-7 |
| Q2 12:57 | | (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 9-7 |
| Q2 12:46 | | 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 10-7 |
| Q2 04:53 | | (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 10-13 |
| Q2 04:48 | | 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. | 10-14 |
| Q2 04:02 | | 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. | 16-14 |
| Q2 03:59 | | 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 17-14 |
| Q2 01:39 | | (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 23-14 |
| Q2 01:29 | | 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 24-14 |
| Q2 00:31 | | (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 24-20 |
| Q2 00:26 | | 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. | 24-21 |
| Q3 04:27 | | 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 27-21 |
| Q4 13:39 | | (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 27-27 |
| Q4 13:34 | | 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. | 27-28 |
| Q4 10:36 | | 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 30-28 |
| Q4 06:48 | | 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. | 30-31 |
| Q4 01:41 | | (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 36-31 |
How the model did
Before kickoff the model had BUF 65%, the market BUF 51%. It finished BUF 36, HOU 31.
Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.