Cardinals at Chargers: week 1

Cardinals

won by 12

Final · week 1

26–14

at SoFi Stadium · Sun 13 Sept

Chargers

lost by 12

How the game swung

The Chargers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Chargers ahead■ Cardinals ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 12:28 - LA Chargers key play by J.Scott (-15% WPA) sealed it.

Q2 13:37 · Turnover

O.Hampton EPA -5.2

(Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left end to ARI 31 for -1 yards (28-A.Wingard). FUMBLES (28-A.Wingard), RECOVERED by ARI-2-W.Johnson at ARI 34.

+13%win chance to ARI

Q2 2:00 · Fourth down

J.Herbert EPA -3.2

(Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at ARI 13 for -10 yards (55-D.Stills).

+12%win chance to ARI

Q4 12:28 · Other · nobody saw this coming

LAC EPA -4.4

16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.

+15%win chance to ARI

Q4 9:50 · Turnover

J.Herbert EPA -2.4

(Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 12-D.Davis INTERCEPTED by 28-A.Wingard at ARI 5. 28-A.Wingard to ARI 5 for no gain (12-D.Davis). Penalty on LAC-69-C.Strange, Offensive Holding, declined.

+5%win chance to ARI

Q4 4:17 · Fourth down

J.Herbert EPA -2.0

(Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-D.Njoku to LAC 38 for 15 yards (2-W.Johnson; 28-A.Wingard). Penalty on LAC-83-D.Njoku, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

+1%win chance to ARI

Every drive

Cardinals drive left to right, Chargers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

TD · 11 pl · 70 yds

TD · 8 pl · 77 yds

Missed FG · 7 pl · 44 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 22 yds

FG · 11 pl · 66 yds

Downs · 10 pl · 52 yds

FG · 7 pl · 52 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 24 yds

FG · 9 pl · 75 yds

TD · 3 pl · 12 yds

Punt · 8 pl · 35 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 11 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -1 yds

TD · 2 pl · 3 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 24 yds

Punt · 8 pl · 34 yds

Downs · 5 pl · 38 yds

FG · 3 pl · 8 yds

Downs · 4 pl · 9 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

ARI goal2040504020LAC goal

Side by side

396

Total yards

268

+0.14

EPA per play

-0.24

49%

Success rate

39%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

6/13

Third downs

2/8

Cardinals leaders

PassingJ.Brissett27/37 · 277 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT

RushingT.Allgeier17 car · 61 yds

ReceivingT.McBride9/13 · 95 yds

Chargers leaders

PassingJ.Herbert17/27 · 209 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT

RushingO.Hampton12 car · 43 yds

ReceivingL.McConkey5/7 · 82 yds

Scoring

Q1 08:54	(Shotgun) 4-J.Love left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-0
Q1 08:49	38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.	7-0
Q1 04:29	(Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	7-6
Q1 04:22	11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	7-7
Q2 06:54	38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.	10-7
Q2 00:04	(:04) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.	13-7
Q3 07:29	38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.	16-7
Q3 06:07	(Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	16-13
Q3 06:03	11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	16-14
Q4 11:48	(Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	22-14
Q4 11:44	38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.	23-14
Q4 02:37	38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.	26-14

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had LAC 59%, the market LAC 81%. It finished ARI 26, LAC 14.

LA Chargers ranks #7 in turnovers (4.8%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.