Seahawks at Cardinals: week 2

Seahawks

won by 24

Final · week 2

31–7

at State Farm Stadium · Sun 20 Sept

Cardinals

lost by 24

How the game swung

The Cardinals' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Cardinals ahead■ Seahawks ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q1 12:38 - Seattle explosive play by D.Lock (+20% WPA) flipped the script.

Q1 12:38 · Explosive play · nobody saw this coming

D.Lock EPA +6.9

(Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+20%win chance to SEA

Q2 15:00 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

J.Brissett EPA +3.7

(Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+14%win chance to ARI

Q2 13:36 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

J.Price EPA -5.2

(Shotgun) 8-J.Price up the middle to ARI 45 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins; 1-Ma.Wilson). FUMBLES (25-Z.Collins), RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at ARI 47.

+10%win chance to ARI

Q2 1:16 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

E.Wilson EPA -4.9

55-O.Oluwatimi and 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson up the middle to ARI 2 for -1 yards (28-A.Wingard).

+12%win chance to ARI

Q2 0:01 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

D.Lock EPA -0.4

(:01) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock sacked at SEA 35 for -16 yards (3-B.Baker).

+4%win chance to ARI

Every drive

Seahawks drive left to right, Cardinals right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds

TD · 2 pl · 86 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 13 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -2 yds

TD · 12 pl · 53 yds

Turnover · 3 pl · 27 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds

Punt · 8 pl · 41 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds

Downs · 8 pl · 29 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 19 yds

Downs · 6 pl · 9 yds

TD · 4 pl · 32 yds

Turnover · 3 pl · 3 yds

FG · 7 pl · 29 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 16 yds

TD · 10 pl · 64 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 1 yds

TD · 16 pl · 66 yds

Half · 2 pl · 24 yds

SEA goal2040504020ARI goal

Side by side

381

Total yards

151

+0.13

EPA per play

-0.33

46%

Success rate

32%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

6/13

Third downs

3/12

Seahawks leaders

PassingD.Lock19/26 · 235 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT

RushingE.Wilson21 car · 92 yds

ReceivingJ.Smith-Njigba9/11 · 155 yds

Cardinals leaders

PassingJ.Brissett17/28 · 95 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT

RushingJ.Love9 car · 29 yds

ReceivingT.McBride8/10 · 41 yds

Scoring

Q1 12:38	(Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-0
Q1 12:25	5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.	7-0
Q2 15:00	(Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	7-6
Q2 14:57	38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.	7-7
Q3 12:31	(Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	13-7
Q3 12:27	5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.	14-7
Q3 06:52	5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.	17-7
Q4 12:44	(Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	23-7
Q4 12:40	5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.	24-7
Q4 01:15	Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	30-7
Q4 01:11	5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.	31-7

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had ARI 64%, the market SEA 64%. It finished SEA 31, ARI 7.

Pure variance - no actionable learning. Process was sound.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.