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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Seahawks
lost by 2
Final · week 3
31–33
at Northwest Stadium · Sun 27 Sept
Commanders
won by 2

How the game swung

The Commanders' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 09:14: WAS score (0-6)Q1 09:08: WAS score (0-7)Q2 13:31: SEA score (6-7)Q2 13:27: SEA score (7-7)Q2 06:51: WAS score (7-13)Q2 06:47: WAS score (7-14)Q2 00:57: SEA score (10-14)Q2 00:03: WAS score (10-17)Q3 10:50: WAS score (10-23)Q3 10:43: WAS score (10-24)Q3 06:14: SEA score (16-24)Q3 06:05: SEA score (17-24)Q4 11:57: SEA score (23-24)Q4 11:53: SEA score (24-24)Q4 04:39: WAS score (24-27)Q4 04:09: SEA score (24-33)Q4 02:55: SEA score (30-33)Q4 02:51: SEA score (31-33)12345WAS winning ↑SEA winning ↓
■ Commanders ahead■ Seahawks ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 4:09 - Seattle turnover by S.Darnold (-29% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q1 11:06 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Price EPA -5.3

8-J.Price left end to SEA 22 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles, 2-A.Robertson). FUMBLES (2-A.Robertson), RECOVERED by WAS-97-T.Settle at SEA 21.

+14%win chance to WAS
2
Q3 12:10 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
S.Darnold EPA -4.8

(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 52-S.Styles (97-T.Settle) at SEA 42. 52-S.Styles to SEA 43 for -1 yards (36-G.Holani).

+9%win chance to WAS
3
Q4 11:57 · Other · nobody saw this coming
S.Darnold EPA +2.2

(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+13%win chance to SEA
4
Q4 8:40 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
M.Mariota EPA +2.2

(Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).

+11%win chance to WAS
5
Q4 4:09 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
S.Darnold EPA -8.7

14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

+29%win chance to WAS

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: Smith-Njigba had 128 yards on 14 targets, close to his usual 108.

Profile
Targets14
Yards128
After the catch7
Yards on short throws3%
deep share of yards36%
Expected (his usual)29%
Even

Even: McLaurin had 77 yards on 9 targets, close to his usual 54.

Profile
Targets9
Yards77
After the catch6
Yards on short throws38%
deep share of yards39%
Expected (his usual)5406%
Even

No verdict: Lock didn't play.

Profile

Every drive

Seahawks drive left to right, Commanders right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 4 pl · 16 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q1
Turnover · 1 pl · 1 yds
Q1
TD · 4 pl · 21 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q1
Punt · 7 pl · 17 yds
Q1
TD · 9 pl · 88 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q2
TD · 8 pl · 60 yds
Q2
Downs · 12 pl · 78 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds
Q2
FG · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q2
FG · 4 pl · 26 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q3
Turnover · 3 pl · 14 yds
Q3
TD · 3 pl · 43 yds
Q3
TD · 8 pl · 55 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 1 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 11 yds
Q3
TD · 7 pl · 69 yds
Q4
FG · 11 pl · 27 yds
Q4
Def TD · 3 pl · 26 yds
Q4
TD · 5 pl · 68 yds
Q4
Half · 6 pl · 32 yds
SEA goal2040504020WAS goal

Side by side

437
Total yards
260
-0.05
EPA per play
-0.08
50%
Success rate
32%
25
First downs
15
0
Sacks taken
2
3
Turnovers
0
3/9
Third downs
3/13
Seahawks leaders
PassingS.Darnold31/45 · 379 yds · 4 TD · 2 INT
RushingJ.Price5 car · 15 yds
ReceivingJ.Smith-Njigba10/14 · 128 yds
Commanders leaders
PassingM.Mariota19/31 · 183 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
RushingJ.Croskey-Merritt19 car · 36 yds
ReceivingT.McLaurin6/9 · 77 yds

Scoring

Q1 09:14(Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 1-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 09:0819-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.0-7
Q2 13:31(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.6-7
Q2 13:275-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.7-7
Q2 06:51(Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 13-T.Burks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-L.Williams].7-13
Q2 06:4719-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.7-14
Q2 00:57(:57) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.10-14
Q2 00:03(:03) 19-D.Stevens 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.10-17
Q3 10:50(Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10-23
Q3 10:4319-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.10-24
Q3 06:14(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-E.Saubert to WAS 1 for 12 yards (52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (52-S.Styles), and recovers at WAS -1. TOUCHDOWN.16-24
Q3 06:055-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.17-24
Q4 11:57(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23-24
Q4 11:535-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.24-24
Q4 04:3919-D.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.24-27
Q4 04:0914-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unspo24-33
Q4 02:55(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.30-33
Q4 02:515-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.31-33

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had SEA 74%, the market SEA 77%. It finished SEA 31, WAS 33.

Pure variance - no actionable learning. Process was sound.

Pick published 27 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.