Giants at Rams: week 2 | Fourth and Data

Giants

lost by 22

Final · week 2

6–28

at SoFi Stadium · Mon 21 Sept

Rams

won by 22

How the game swung

The Rams' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Rams ahead■ Giants ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q2 3:11 - LA Rams turnover by K.Williams (-8% WPA) sealed it.

Q2 7:46 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

J.Winston EPA +1.6

19-J.Winston right guard to LA 21 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald; 0-B.Young). (Virtual Measurement). Los Angeles Rams challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

+3%win chance to NYG

Q2 6:31 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

J.Winston EPA -4.6

(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDuffie [0-B.Young] at LA -1. 22-T.McDuffie to LA 21 for 22 yards (84-T.Johnson).

+7%win chance to LA

Q2 5:37 · Turnover

M.Stafford EPA -2.4

9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG 29. 8-J.Holland to NYG 29 for no gain (17-D.Adams).

+3%win chance to NYG

Q2 3:11 · Turnover

K.Williams EPA -5.3

23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 11 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (8-J.Holland), RECOVERED by NYG-8-J.Holland at LA 11.

+8%win chance to NYG

Q4 6:17 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

J.Winston EPA -3.1

(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 88-M.Fields (1-E.Forbes). Penalty on NYG-88-M.Fields, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

+0%win chance to LA

Every drive

Giants drive left to right, Rams right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 7 pl · 27 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds

Punt · 8 pl · 15 yds

TD · 8 pl · 90 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 1 yds

TD · 6 pl · 88 yds

Turnover · 9 pl · 48 yds

Turnover · 2 pl · 5 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 21 yds

Turnover · 1 pl · 5 yds

FG · 3 pl · 0 yds

Missed FG · 2 pl · 40 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 22 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 17 yds

TD · 7 pl · 86 yds

FG · 6 pl · 18 yds

Punt · 7 pl · 34 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds

TD · 9 pl · 64 yds

Downs · 7 pl · 35 yds

Half · 6 pl · 45 yds

NYG goal2040504020LA goal

Side by side

182

Total yards

484

-0.43

EPA per play

+0.29

27%

Success rate

55%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

3/14

Third downs

5/8

Giants leaders

PassingJ.Winston11/27 · 111 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT

RushingC.Skattebo12 car · 36 yds

ReceivingD.Mooney2/3 · 48 yds

Rams leaders

PassingM.Stafford22/31 · 327 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT

RushingK.Williams12 car · 85 yds

ReceivingD.Adams8/10 · 195 yds

Scoring

Q1 00:19	(:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	0-6
Q1 00:11	92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.	0-7
Q2 11:13	(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	0-13
Q2 11:07	92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.	0-14
Q2 00:29	(:29) 34-D.Zvada 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.	3-14
Q3 06:25	9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	3-20
Q3 06:21	92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.	3-21
Q3 03:55	34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.	6-21
Q4 09:02	(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 18-T.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-27
Q4 08:57	92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.	6-28

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had NYG 56%, the market LA 72%. It finished NYG 6, LA 28.

LA Rams ranks #6 in turnovers (4.9%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 21 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.