This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to LA.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Khalil Shakir · against LA

A tough draw

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

82%

Intermediate

14%

Deep (20+)

5%

Left side

29%

Middle

25%

Right side

46%

How LA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

7th

Intermediate

7th

Deep (20+)

4th

Left side

5th

Middle

7th

Right side

2nd

Yards after catch allowed

4th

Sack rate forced

18th

The read

1. the Rams are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (7th, 7th, 4th). There's no obvious soft spot for Shakir to lean on.
2. Don't force intermediate throws: they've been Shakir's worst return (-0.30 EPA a target), and the Rams are 7th there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Puka Nacua · against BUF

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

61%

Intermediate

24%

Deep (20+)

15%

Left side

32%

Middle

21%

Right side

47%

How BUF defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

4th

Intermediate

26th

Deep (20+)

16th

Left side

26th

Middle

9th

Right side

7th

Yards after catch allowed

6th

Sack rate forced

16th

The read

1. Buffalo rank 26th against intermediate throws, which make up 24% of Nacua's targets.
2. Work the left side: 32% of his targets go that way and Buffalo rank 26th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Bills have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

BUF offence

LA defence

OverallEPA per play

2nd

3rd

PassingEPA per dropback

3rd

2nd

RushingEPA per carry

5th

10th

Third downconversion rate

2nd

6th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

19th

21st

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Bills offence has a 5-place edge.

When the Rams have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LA offence

BUF defence

OverallEPA per play

11th

29th

PassingEPA per dropback

16th

27th

RushingEPA per carry

11th

21st

Third downconversion rate

10th

20th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

5th

16th

Biggest gap: overall, where the Rams offence has a 18-place edge.

Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Bills this season

W36-31wk 1 at HOUW41-31wk 2 vs DETW24-16wk 3 vs LACL26-29wk 4 vs NE

Rams this season

L7-27wk 1 vs SFW28-6wk 2 vs NYGL26-30wk 3 at DENW24-20wk 4 at PHI

Last 2 meetingsBUF 1 · LA 1

42-44BUF at LA
2024-12

31-10BUF at LA
2022-09

Injury report

Billsmodel impact 0.0

Tyrell ShaversWR · Knee - ACL	PUP
Dorian StrongCB · Neck	PUP
Zane DurantDT	IR
Jordan HancockDB · Hamstring	IR
DJ MooreWR	Questionable
Te'Cory CouchCB · Hamstring	Questionable
Ed OliverDT · Knee	Questionable
T.J. SandersDL · Appendix	Questionable
Dee AlfordDB · Ankle	Questionable
Christian BenfordDB · Toe	Questionable

Ramsmodel impact 0.0

No players on the injury report.

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.