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18Justin Jefferson
Minnesota Vikings#186 yrs expLSU73 · 192 lbElite volume, weak efficiency
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
80: high-end starter
One number for how well Jefferson has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 91 (#17 of 121).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
Where Jefferson can hurt the Buccaneers
How he gets his production, set against how the Buccaneers have held up in their last 17 games. Ranks are of 32.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tampa Bay rank 25th against intermediate throws, which make up 32% of Jefferson's targets.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Jefferson's worst return (-0.10 EPA a target), and Tampa Bay are 11th there.
- Work the middle: 20% of his targets go that way and Tampa Bay rank 26th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
TB's corners, last 17 games
Who is likely to see him. Free data doesn't say who covers whom on each snap, so this is the group, not a confirmed matchup.
| Corner | Targets | Yds / target | Catch % | Depth faced | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyon McCollum | 83 | 7.3 | 65% | 11.6 | 97 |
| Jacob Parrish | 72 | 7.6 | 72% | 7.9 | 86 |
| Benjamin Morrison | 58 | 7.8 | 60% | 10.1 | 91 |
| Jamel Dean | 47 | 8.0 | 49% | 12.8 | 69 |
The average corner allows 7.4 yards per target. Red is tighter than average, green is looser.
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  CHI | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 91 | +1.5 |
| 26 wk 1 |  GB | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 | 80 | +12.5 |
| 25 wk 18 | GB | 11 | 8 | 101 | 0 | 69 | +4.4 |
| 25 wk 17 |  DET | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 20 | +0.7 |
| 25 wk 16 |  NYG | 8 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 59 | +8.3 |
| 25 wk 15 |  DAL | 8 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 71 | -6.6 |
| 25 wk 14 |  WAS | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 40 | +0.2 |
| 25 wk 13 |  SEA | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 48 | -7.3 |
| 25 wk 12 | GB | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 58 | -2.5 |
| 25 wk 11 | CHI | 9 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 82 | -6.8 |
| 25 wk 10 |  BAL | 12 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 214 | -11.1 |
| 25 wk 9 | DET | 9 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 57 | +0.8 |
| 25 wk 8 |  LAC | 11 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 80 | -2.4 |
| 25 wk 7 |  PHI | 10 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 122 | -3.6 |
| 25 wk 5 |  CLE | 11 | 7 | 123 | 0 | 166 | +8.6 |
| 25 wk 4 |  PIT | 11 | 10 | 126 | 0 | 132 | +7.1 |
| 25 wk 3 |  CIN | 7 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 49 | +4.8 |