Jaguars at Broncos: week 2 | Fourth and Data

Jaguars

lost by 7

Final · week 2

13–20

at Empower Field at Mile High · Sun 20 Sept

Broncos

won by 7

How the game swung

The Broncos' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Broncos ahead■ Jaguars ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 11:53 - Denver momentum-shifting play by B.Nix (+16% WPA) flipped the script.

Q2 10:04 · Other · nobody saw this coming

B.Nix EPA +3.6

(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle to JAX 1 for 49 yards (1-M.Brown).

+13%win chance to DEN

Q2 2:15 · Turnover

B.Nix EPA -4.3

(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis at JAX -8. Touchback.

+15%win chance to JAX

Q3 1:40 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

T.Lawrence EPA -3.4

(Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 21-R.Moss [15-N.Bonitto] at DEN 33. 21-R.Moss to DEN 36 for 3 yards (11-P.Washington).

+8%win chance to DEN

Q4 11:53 · Big play · nobody saw this coming

B.Nix EPA +2.0

10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+16%win chance to DEN

Q4 11:11 · Big play · nobody saw this coming

T.Lawrence EPA +3.1

(No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 3-J.Meyers to DEN 38 for 28 yards (9-T.Hufanga).

+16%win chance to JAX

Every drive

Jaguars drive left to right, Broncos right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 17 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 24 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 4 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 20 yds

TD · 8 pl · 77 yds

FG · 7 pl · 63 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -4 yds

Turnover · 8 pl · 76 yds

FG · 6 pl · 59 yds

FG · 10 pl · 61 yds

FG · 7 pl · 50 yds

Turnover · 5 pl · 13 yds

TD · 10 pl · 64 yds

Missed FG · 6 pl · 32 yds

TD · 5 pl · 31 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 9 yds

Half · 7 pl · 62 yds

JAX goal2040504020DEN goal

Side by side

268

Total yards

395

-0.05

EPA per play

+0.12

44%

Success rate

48%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

5/12

Third downs

4/10

Jaguars leaders

PassingT.Lawrence17/29 · 189 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT

RushingB.Tuten13 car · 65 yds

ReceivingP.Washington7/12 · 98 yds

Broncos leaders

PassingB.Nix22/31 · 288 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT

RushingJ.Coleman10 car · 39 yds

ReceivingJ.Waddle8/10 · 138 yds

Scoring

Q2 12:17	(Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 33-B.Tuten. 33-B.Tuten right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	6-0
Q2 12:13	39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	7-0
Q2 07:03	3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.	7-3
Q2 00:03	(:03) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	10-3
Q3 09:05	39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	13-3
Q3 05:02	3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.	13-6
Q4 11:53	10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	13-12
Q4 11:47	3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.	13-13
Q4 07:24	20-J.Coleman right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	13-19
Q4 07:21	3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.	13-20

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had JAX 66%, the market DEN 57%. It finished JAX 13, DEN 20.

Denver ranks #8 in turnovers (4.6%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.