Browns at Jaguars: week 1 | Fourth and Data

Browns

lost by 24

Final · week 1

10–34

at EverBank Stadium · Sun 13 Sept

Jaguars

won by 24

How the game swung

The Jaguars' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Jaguars ahead■ Browns ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q1 12:17 - Cleveland turnover by D.Watson (-17% WPA) flipped the script.

Q1 12:17 · Turnover

D.Watson EPA -6.4

4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun [52-D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (74-E.Jenkins).

+17%win chance to JAX

Q2 8:38 · Turnover

D.Watson EPA -4.3

4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 45 for 5 yards (51-V.Miller) [44-T.Walker]. FUMBLES (51-V.Miller), touched at CLE 46, RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Hines-Allen at CLE 44.

+4%win chance to JAX

Q4 10:50 · Fourth down

D.Watson EPA +2.6

(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to JAX 21 for 8 yards (27-C.Ransaw, 47-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (47-D.Gardeck), RECOVERED by JAX-91-A.Armstead at JAX 22. 91-A.Armstead to JAX 24 for 2 yards (44-H.Fannin). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play

+0%win chance to JAX

Q4 8:22 · Fourth down

D.Watson EPA -3.7

(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at JAX 22 for -6 yards (50-B.Combs).

+0%win chance to JAX

Q4 2:00 · Explosive play · nobody saw this coming

D.Watson EPA +4.7

(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 12-D.Boston for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+0%win chance to JAX

Every drive

Browns drive left to right, Jaguars right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Turnover · 5 pl · 32 yds

TD · 8 pl · 59 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds

TD · 9 pl · 79 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -8 yds

FG · 10 pl · 43 yds

Turnover · 2 pl · 6 yds

TD · 5 pl · 44 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 15 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 9 yds

Half · 5 pl · 46 yds

TD · 4 pl · 60 yds

FG · 6 pl · 20 yds

FG · 9 pl · 57 yds

Downs · 14 pl · 68 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 12 yds

TD · 6 pl · 89 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

CLE goal2040504020JAX goal

Side by side

272

Total yards

363

-0.18

EPA per play

+0.34

45%

Success rate

60%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

1/8

Third downs

5/9

Browns leaders

PassingD.Watson16/22 · 205 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT

RushingD.Watson6 car · 38 yds

ReceivingD.Boston2/4 · 59 yds

Jaguars leaders

PassingT.Lawrence18/23 · 245 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT

RushingB.Tuten15 car · 66 yds

ReceivingP.Washington5/6 · 83 yds

Scoring

Q1 08:18	(Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-M.Collins].	0-6
Q1 08:11	39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	0-7
Q1 01:47	16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 19-J.Cameron for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	0-13
Q1 01:42	39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	0-14
Q2 09:13	39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	0-17
Q2 06:24	(Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	0-23
Q2 06:18	39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	0-24
Q3 12:18	(Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 3-J.Meyers for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	0-30
Q3 12:08	39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	0-31
Q3 08:34	25-A.Szmyt 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	3-31
Q3 01:52	39-C.Little 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	3-34
Q4 02:00	(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 12-D.Boston for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	9-34
Q4 01:52	25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	10-34

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had JAX 75%, the market JAX 79%. It finished CLE 10, JAX 34.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.