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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Dalton Kincaid86
Bills · TE

Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills#863 yrs expUtah; Univ of California-San Diego75 · 246 lb
99Form
91Established
Elite creator#1 of 74 tight ends
Games17last 17
Targets794.6 a game
Catches6177% caught
Yards88852 a game
TDs6
Skill profile · last 17 games · vs 74 tight ends

Elite depth, less so separation

Each axis is a percentile against every qualified tight end over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).

Volume: 78th percentileDepth: 98th percentileSeparation: 50th percentileAfter the catch: 85th percentileHands: 80th percentileEfficiency: 98th percentileVolume78thDepth98thSeparation50thAfter the catch85thHands80thEfficiency98th
KincaidPosition averageElite, 90th
VolumeAbove avgshare of team targets
16.7%78th pct
DepthEliteavg depth of target
9.9 yd98th pct
Separationyards of separation at the catch
3.50 yd50th pct
After the catchAbove avgYAC over expected per catch
+1.5 yd85th pct
HandsAbove avgdrop rate
1.3% drops80th pct
EfficiencyEliteEPA per target
+0.6998th pct
F&D score · current form, last 17 games

99: elite creator

One number for how well Kincaid has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified tight end; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 91 (#9 of 62).

Contributionthe skill profile, efficiency-weighted
84
Consistencyhow steady game to game
96
Holds up vs good Doutput against the tougher half
96
Trend, last 6 gamesRising
Schedule facedSoft

Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.

Floor and ceiling

How his games are spread

0–9 yds: 1 games010–19 yds: 1 games20–29 yds: 3 games2030–39 yds: 3 games40–49 yds: 3 games4050–59 yds: 1 games60–69 yds: 1 games6070–79 yds: 0 games80–89 yds: 0 games8090–99 yds: 1 games100–109 yds: 2 games100110–119 yds: 0 games120–129 yds: 0 games120130–139 yds: 1 games
12/17games with 30+ yds
6/17games with 50+ yds
4/17games with 70+ yds
4/17games with 90+ yds
Role

Game by game

avg 4.6 targets24 wk 15: 724 wk 16: 724 wk 17: 225 wk 1: 425 wk 2: 625 wk 3: 625 wk 4: 225 wk 5: 625 wk 8: 325 wk 9: 625 wk 10: 325 wk 14: 525 wk 15: 425 wk 16: 125 wk 18: 326 wk 1: 626 wk 2: 824 wk 1526 wk 2
Game log · last 17

Every game

GameOpponentTgtRecYdsTDAir ydsEPA
26 wk 2DET8795184+7.2
26 wk 1HOU65130098+7.6
25 wk 18NYJ3348031+2.4
25 wk 16CLE100019-0.5
25 wk 15NE4334050+1.6
25 wk 14CIN5441121+3.7
25 wk 10MIA3237041+2.0
25 wk 9KC66101148+8.6
25 wk 8CAR3123033+1.5
25 wk 5NE66108075+10.2
25 wk 4NO2128137+2.5
25 wk 3MIA6566141+5.0
25 wk 2NYJ6437029-0.6
25 wk 1BAL4448140+2.9
24 wk 17NYJ22240-2+1.7
24 wk 16NE7415056-2.2
24 wk 15DET7453084+0.9