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10Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers#106 yrs expOregon78 · 237 lbBest at aggression, weak sack avoidance
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
70: quality starter
One number for how well Herbert has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 80 (#15 of 44).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 219.5
Rushing yards over 19.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 219.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  LV | 15 | 27 | 192 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -0.6 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  ARI | 17 | 27 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 29 | -5.6 | No |
| 25 wk 17 |  HOU | 21 | 32 | 236 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 37 | -8.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 |  DAL | 23 | 29 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 42 | +23.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 15 |  KC | 19 | 29 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +0.4 | No |
| 25 wk 14 |  PHI | 12 | 26 | 139 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 66 | -15.6 | No |
| 25 wk 13 | LV | 15 | 20 | 151 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | +7.3 | No |
| 25 wk 11 |  JAX | 10 | 18 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | -14.2 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  PIT | 20 | 33 | 220 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | -6.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 9 |  TEN | 19 | 29 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 57 | +1.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 8 |  MIN | 18 | 25 | 227 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 62 | +11.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 7 |  IND | 37 | 55 | 420 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 31 | +5.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 6 |  MIA | 29 | 38 | 264 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +12.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 5 |  WAS | 22 | 29 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 60 | -6.1 | No |
| 25 wk 4 |  NYG | 23 | 41 | 203 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 24 | -21.1 | No |
| 25 wk 3 |  DEN | 28 | 47 | 300 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -2.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 2 | LV | 19 | 27 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 31 | +10.2 | Yes |