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IND
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Patriots
14-3 · 28.8 pts/g
Final · week 21
10–7
full breakdown lands the morning afterBroncos
14-3 · 23.6 pts/g
ModelDEN 56%
MarketNE 64%
Model pickDEN 56%Low confidence
F&D score74out of 100
MarketNE 64%draftkings, margin removed
vs market+20.9points, model minus market
Total45.9DEN by 1.1
We lean toward DEN in this one. NE have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. DEN have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Form and history
Patriots this seasonW
23-20wk 5 at BUFW
25-19wk 6 at NOW
31-13wk 7 at TENW
32-13wk 8 vs CLEW
24-23wk 9 vs ATLW
28-23wk 10 at TBW
27-14wk 11 vs NYJW
26-20wk 12 at CINW
33-15wk 13 vs NYGL31-35wk 15 vs BUFW
28-24wk 16 at BALW42-10wk 17 at NYJW
38-10wk 18 vs MIAW
16-3wk 19 vs LACW
28-16wk 20 vs HOUW10-7wk 21 at DENL
13-29wk 22 vs SEA
23-20wk 5 at BUFW25-19wk 6 at NOW31-13wk 7 at TENW32-13wk 8 vs CLEW24-23wk 9 vs ATLW28-23wk 10 at TBW27-14wk 11 vs NYJW26-20wk 12 at CINW33-15wk 13 vs NYGL31-35wk 15 vs BUFW28-24wk 16 at BALW42-10wk 17 at NYJW38-10wk 18 vs MIAW16-3wk 19 vs LACW28-16wk 20 vs HOUW10-7wk 21 at DENL13-29wk 22 vs SEABroncos this seasonLast 1 meetingsNE 1 · DEN 0
26-23NE at DEN2023-12
Injury report
Patriotsmodel impact 0.0| Craig ReynoldsRB | Out |
| Thomas OdukoyaTE | Out |
| Harold LandryLB · Knee | Out |
| Darius HarrisLB | Out |
| Deneric PrinceRB | IR |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Lan LarisonRB · Leg | IR |
| Terrell JenningsRB · Concussion | IR |
| Eric GregoryDT | IR |
| Jaquelin RoyDT | IR |
| Isaiah ItonDL · Hip | IR |
| Joshua FarmerDL · Hamstring | IR |
Broncosmodel impact 0.0| Bo NixQB · Ankle | Out |
| Delarrin Turner-YellDB · Knee | Out |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Foot | IR |
| Lucas KrullTE · Foot | IR |
| Matt HenningsenDE · Achilles | IR |
| Johnny WalkerDE | IR |
| Drew SandersLB · Foot | IR |
| Nick GargiuloOL · Knee | IR |
| Michael BurtonFB · Hamstring | IR |
| Brandon JonesDB · Pectoral | IR |
| Matt PeartT · Knee | IR |
| Troy FranklinWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeNE | Passing yards | 224.5 | 1.90 | – | 30% | |
| Jarrett StidhamDEN | Passing yards | 209.5 | 1.89 | – | 50% | |
| Drake MayeNE | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.88 | – | 20% | |
| Jarrett StidhamDEN | Passing TDs | 0.5 | 1.41 | – | 50% | |
| Drake MayeNErole up | Rushing yards | 30.5 | 1.92 | – | 40% | |
| Jaleel McLaughlinDEN | Rushing yards | 22.5 | 1.86 | – | 50% | |
| Jarrett StidhamDEN | Rushing yards | 14.5 | 1.86 | – | 0% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr.DEN | Rushing yards | 2.5 | 1.96 | – | 30% | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | Rushing yards | 50.5 | 1.87 | – | 50% | |
| RJ HarveyDEN | Rushing yards | 39.5 | 1.88 | – | 50% | |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | Rushing yards | 37.5 | 1.92 | – | 25% | |
| Adam TrautmanDENrole up | Receiving yards | 5.5 | 1.91 | – | 30% | |
| Austin HooperNE | Receiving yards | 10.5 | 1.89 | – | 90% | |
| Courtland SuttonDEN | Receiving yards | 47.5 | 1.88 | – | 90% | |
| DeMario DouglasNE | Receiving yards | 11.5 | 1.85 | – | 90% | |
| Evan EngramDEN | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 1.90 | – | 90% | |
| Hunter HenryNErole up | Receiving yards | 42.5 | 1.88 | – | 60% | |
| Kayshon BoutteNErole up | Receiving yards | 31.5 | 1.91 | – | 60% | |
| Kyle WilliamsNE | Receiving yards | 0.5 | 2.65 | – | 70% | |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDENrole up | Receiving yards | 10.5 | 1.85 | – | 70% | |
| Mack HollinsNErole up | Receiving yards | 23.5 | 1.89 | – | 60% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr.DEN | Receiving yards | 27.5 | 1.89 | – | 10% | |
| Pat BryantDEN | Receiving yards | 35.5 | 1.87 | – | 10% | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | Receiving yards | 20.5 | 1.90 | – | 20% | |
| RJ HarveyDEN | Receiving yards | 23.5 | 1.92 | – | 50% | |
| Stefon DiggsNE | Receiving yards | 46.5 | 1.91 | – | 60% | |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | Receiving yards | 3.5 | 1.90 | – | 100% | |
| Tyler BadieDEN | Receiving yards | 3.5 | 1.85 | – | 0% | |
| Adam PrenticeDEN | Receptions | 0.5 | 4.00 | – | 33% | |
| Adam TrautmanDEN | Receptions | 0.5 | 1.59 | – | 80% | |
| Austin HooperNErole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.81 | – | 90% | |
| Courtland SuttonDEN | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.65 | – | 90% | |
| DeMario DouglasNE | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.26 | – | 100% | |
| Evan EngramDEN | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.94 | – | 90% | |
| Hunter HenryNErole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.71 | – | 80% | |
| Jaleel McLaughlinDEN | Receptions | 0.5 | 2.35 | – | 70% | |
| Kayshon BoutteNErole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.17 | – | 70% | |
| Kyle WilliamsNE | Receptions | 0.5 | 2.65 | – | 70% | |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDENrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.59 | – | 80% | |
| Mack HollinsNE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.20 | – | 30% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
NE odds1.49
DEN odds2.70
NE fair odds1.55
DEN fair odds2.81
Model vs marketDEN +20.9
Kelly stake (capped)8.1%
Bookdraftkings
Rest+1d
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors DEN (56%) by 1.1 points.