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PHINew England at Chicago: model and market split
NE at CHI, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model NE 58%, market CHI 58%.
Week 7, Thursday 8:15pm ET. New England visit Chicago. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| NE | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | +0.04 (11th) | +0.03 (13th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.01 (18th) | -0.03 (15th) |
| Offence success rate | 45% (12th) | 47% (10th) |
| Third-down conversion | 44% (9th) | 46% (6th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 26% (25th) | 21% (8th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 22% (20th) | 33% (2nd) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60% (18th) | 56% (24th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-6 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Chicago's pass rush (2nd in pressure generated) against a New England line ranked 25th in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup. Chicago's protection (8th in pressure allowed) should hold up against New England's rush (20th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 6 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
A.J. Brown against Chicago: the shot plays are there. Chicago rank 29th against deep balls, and 17% of Brown's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Work the middle: 16% of his targets go that way and Chicago rank 28th defending throws there.
Rome Odunze against New England: best way in: intermediate throws. New England rank 17th against intermediate throws, which make up 34% of Odunze's targets.
Caleb Williams against New England: a tough day in the air. New England rank 5th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (17th). Pressure: New England are 16th at getting sacks, and Chicago are 4th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has New England at 58% (low confidence), with a line of NE by 0.9. The market disagrees: it makes Chicago 58% favourites at CHI by 3. That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-21T09-16-06Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
