NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHIWeek 6 graded: 6‑8, market 8‑6
The market beat us this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.
Every week we grade every pick we published, against the result and against the market. Week 6: the model went 6-8; the market favourite went 8-6. The market beat us this week.
Where we were wrong
IND at 72% (TEN 26 @ IND 20). LAR at 71% (ARI 18 @ LAR 16). BAL at 67% (BAL 10 @ CLE 13). The most confident misses are the ones worth learning from, so they go first.
Us vs the market
We were right where the market was wrong 0 times; the market was right where we were wrong 2 times (GB, PIT).
| Game | Pick | Model % | Score | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ KC | KC | 87% | 6-22 | Right | Right |
| WAS @ SF | SF | 84% | 17-23 | Right | Right |
| NYJ @ NE | NE | 80% | 19-26 | Right | Right |
| TEN @ IND | IND | 72% | 26-20 | Wrong | Wrong |
| ARI @ LAR | LAR | 71% | 18-16 | Wrong | Wrong |
| BUF @ LV | BUF | 70% | 33-30 | Right | Right |
| BAL @ CLE | BAL | 67% | 10-13 | Wrong | Wrong |
| HOU @ JAX | JAX | 63% | 34-31 | Wrong | Wrong |
| CAR @ PHI | CAR | 60% | 25-14 | Right | Right |
| NO @ NYG | NYG | 60% | 34-27 | Wrong | Wrong |
| DAL @ GB | DAL | 54% | 13-23 | Wrong | Right |
| CHI @ ATL | CHI | 54% | 31-23 | Right | Right |
| SEA @ DEN | SEA | 53% | 14-17 | Wrong | Wrong |
| PIT @ TB | TB | 50% | 26-19 | Wrong | Right |
Every week 6 pick, most confident first
Picking winners is not beating the price. Across 2025 our flat-bet ROI at posted odds was negative. Use the model as one view of the game, not as a tip.
Sources: results_dashboard.json (2026-10-20T09:00:48.112054Z). Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
