NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
DAL
PHIDenver 17, Seattle 14: what nobody priced
We had Seattle at 53%. The market had Seattle by 2.5. Denver won 17-14 at Empower Field at Mile High.
We had Seattle at 53%. The market had Seattle by 2.5. Denver won 17-14 at Empower Field at Mile High. Our lean didn't hold, though at 53% that was close to a coin flip.
How it swung
2. With 1:31 left, Kris Abrams-Draine intercepted Sam Darnold's short throw for Tory Horton, a 35-point swing in win probability towards Denver.
3. With 1:10 left, Jeremy Crawshaw punts 52 yards to sea 15. Rashid Shaheed pushed ob at sea 46 for 31 yards, a 24-point swing in win probability towards Seattle.
5. In overtime (4:57), Wil Lutz kicked a 53-yard field goal, a 35-point swing in win probability towards Denver.
Who won the matchups
Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Denver: Even. Smith-Njigba had 134 yards on 16 targets, close to his usual 108.
Jaylen Waddle against Seattle: Seattle won it. Waddle held to 24 yards on 7 targets, against his usual 55.
Bo Nix against Seattle: Seattle won it. Nix managed -0.21 EPA a dropback, well below his usual +0.06.
The reasons that mattered: Seattle turned it over 3 times to 0, which no pre-game number prices.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 6; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-15T09-10-45Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
