NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
PHIGreen Bay 23, Dallas 13: what we missed
We had Dallas at 54%. The market had Dallas by 1.5. Green Bay won 23-13 at Lambeau Field.
We had Dallas at 54%. The market had Dallas by 1.5. Green Bay won 23-13 at Lambeau Field. Our lean didn't hold, though at 54% that was close to a coin flip. The market leaned the other way.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (1:53), Dee Winters intercepted Jordan Love's short throw for Matthew Golden, a 10-point swing in win probability towards Dallas.
2. In the 2nd quarter (14:23), Evan Williams intercepted Dak Prescott's short throw for CeeDee Lamb, a 8-point swing in win probability towards Green Bay.
3. In the 2nd quarter (2:00), Brandon Cisse intercepted Dak Prescott's short throw for CeeDee Lamb, a 9-point swing in win probability towards Green Bay.
Who won the matchups
CeeDee Lamb against Green Bay: Even. Lamb had 70 yards on 19 targets, close to his usual 87.
Christian Watson against Dallas: Even. Watson had 64 yards on 8 targets, close to his usual 64.
Jordan Love against Dallas: Even. Love at +0.14 EPA a dropback, close to his usual +0.20.
We had it close to a coin flip (54%), and it went the other way. Some games are just misses, and we grade those too.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 6; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-18T09-12-36Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
