NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
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PHIArizona at the Rams: what decides it
ARI at LA, Sunday 4:05pm ET. Model LA 69%, market LA 86%.
Week 6, Sunday 4:05pm ET. Arizona visit the Rams. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| ARI | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.02 (16th) | +0.07 (9th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.12 (29th) | -0.04 (10th) |
| Offence success rate | 46% (12th) | 47% (7th) |
| Third-down conversion | 41% (15th) | 47% (5th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 21% (13th) | 15% (1st) |
| Pressure rate generated | 18% (26th) | 19% (24th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 63% (17th) | 62% (18th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-5 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
the Rams's protection (1st in pressure allowed) should hold up against Arizona's rush (26th). the Rams's offence (9th in EPA per play) meets a Arizona defence ranked 29th — that's the mismatch to watch.
A caveat worth keeping: that's 5 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Trey McBride against the Rams: a tough draw. the Rams are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (7th, 6th, 3rd). There's no obvious soft spot for McBride to lean on. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 15th percentile for separation and 78th for hands, and Emmanuel Forbes, Cobie Durant, Darious Williams and Josh Wallace all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
Puka Nacua against Arizona: the opening is underneath, not deep. Arizona rank 32nd against short throws and 25th for yards after the catch allowed. Nacua takes 62% of his targets short and is 88th percentile after the catch. Work the right side: 47% of his targets go that way and Arizona rank 32nd defending throws there.
Matthew Stafford against Arizona: a pass defence to exploit. Arizona rank 32nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against short throws. Pressure: Arizona are 24th at getting sacks, and the Rams are 1st at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has the Rams at 69% (medium confidence), with a line of LA by 7.9. The market agrees on the side at 86% (LA by 12.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-15T09-10-45Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
