PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHIChicago 30, New England 24: what we missed
We had New England at 57%. The market had Chicago by 3. Chicago won 30-24 at Soldier Field.
We had New England at 57%. The market had Chicago by 3. Chicago won 30-24 at Soldier Field. Our lean didn't hold, though at 57% that was close to a coin flip. The market leaned the other way.
How it swung
3. In the 2nd quarter (3:32), D'Marco Jackson intercepted Drake Maye's deep throw for Eli Raridon, a 10-point swing in win probability towards Chicago.
4. In the 2nd quarter (0:03), Drake Maye found Rhamondre Stevenson for a 48-yard touchdown, a 9-point swing in win probability towards New England.
5. In the 4th quarter (9:40), Caleb Williams found Colston Loveland for 9 yards, a 6-point swing in win probability towards Chicago.
Who won the matchups
A.J. Brown against Chicago: Even. Brown had 48 yards on 6 targets, close to his usual 62.
Rome Odunze against New England: Odunze won it. 69 yards on 5 targets, above his usual 56.
Caleb Williams against New England: Williams won it. +0.38 EPA a dropback, above his usual +0.10.
Nothing in the pre-game numbers pointed this way. Some games are just misses, and we grade those too.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 7; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-22T09-10-53Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.