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SEAGreen Bay 27, Carolina 19: how it played out
We had Green Bay at 60%. The market had Green Bay by 3.5. Green Bay won 27-19 at Lambeau Field.
We had Green Bay at 60%. The market had Green Bay by 3.5. Green Bay won 27-19 at Lambeau Field. We were right, and so was the market.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (15:00), Ryan Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from car 35. Coleman Owen for 19 yards. fumbles, touched, recovered by Nick Hampton, a 9-point swing in win probability towards Carolina.
4. In the 2nd quarter (9:19), Jordan Love found Christian Watson for 53 yards, a 13-point swing in win probability towards Green Bay.
5. In the 2nd quarter (5:23), Ty'Ron Hopper intercepted Bryce Young's short throw for Jalen Coker, a 13-point swing in win probability towards Green Bay.
Who won the matchups
Tetairoa McMillan against Green Bay: Even. McMillan had 59 yards on 12 targets, close to his usual 67.
Christian Watson against Carolina: Watson won it. 113 yards on 10 targets, above his usual 71.
The model's call held up. One right pick isn't a trend; the full record is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 8; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-29T09-11-35Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.