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WASChicago at Seattle: model and market split
CHI at SEA, Monday 8:15pm ET. Model CHI 52%, market SEA 60%.
Week 8, Monday 8:15pm ET. Chicago visit Seattle. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| CHI | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | +0.05 (12th) | -0.04 (21st) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.00 (16th) | -0.13 (2nd) |
| Offence success rate | 47% (10th) | 42% (19th) |
| Third-down conversion | 44% (7th) | 40% (17th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 20% (8th) | 28% (31st) |
| Pressure rate generated | 28% (3rd) | 29% (2nd) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 58% (22nd) | 60% (20th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-7 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Chicago's pass rush (3rd in pressure generated) against a Seattle line ranked 31st in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup. Seattle's defence (2nd) should have the upper hand on Chicago's offence (12th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 7 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Rome Odunze against Seattle: no obvious soft spot. Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Odunze's likeliest route is short throws (42% of his targets), where they rank 14th. Don't force intermediate throws: they've been Odunze's worst return (-0.03 EPA a target), and Seattle are 1st there.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Chicago: the shot plays are there. Chicago rank 32nd against deep balls, and 12% of Smith-Njigba's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Work the middle: 23% of his targets go that way and Chicago rank 30th defending throws there.
Caleb Williams against Seattle: a tough day in the air. Seattle rank 2nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (14th). Pressure: Seattle are 14th at getting sacks, and Chicago are 6th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Chicago at 52% (low confidence), with a line of pick'em. The market disagrees: it makes Seattle 60% favourites at SEA by 3. That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-31T09-12-41Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
